905
FXUS63 KAPX 022327
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
727 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and scattered storms tonight into Friday

- A few showers remain possible Sunday morning as a weak cold
  front progresses across the CWA.

- Weather turns towards a wetter pattern starting Tuesday as low
  pressure settles into the Central CONUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging overhead will continue to slide over the southern Great
Lakes/New England today and tonight. Upstream, a strong shortwave
trough will lift from the Midwest over the far northern Great
Lakes/Ontario later tonight and Friday. An associated surface
cyclone will follow suit, dragging an attendant cold front across
the state Friday morning into Friday evening.

Forecast Details:

Showers, scattered storms tonight into Friday -- Mainly light rain
chances will move into western portions of the area this afternoon
as high clouds continue to spread overhead. Primary rain chances
move in later this evening and overnight with the potential for
isolated/scattered thunderstorms. While a few stronger storms may
form and will be capable of gusty winds and small hail, severe
storms are not anticipated at this time. Showers will continue into
Friday morning for most areas as the front swings through, ending
rain chances from west to east later Friday morning into early
Friday afternoon. After chances pass, mostly sunny skies are
anticipated as a dry air mass filters into the region. Overnight
lows in the mid 40s to low 50s are in store with highs on Friday
reaching into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel longwave troughing with embedded height disturbances
spanned across North America will keep a non impactful weather
pattern for the entirety of the long term period with some
precipitation at times. Closed low pressure currently over the
Saskatchewan/Montana boarder and a second low over the Pacific
northwest will return chances of precipitation later this weekend
and early next week.

The first low over the boarder will progress northeast to the
southern shore of Hudson Bay by Saturday Morning. A cold front
attached to the aformentioned low will drag across the Great Lakes
region Saturday night. Additional showers and storms continue
beginning on Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast period as
the secondary low settles into the central CONUS.



Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-A few showers remain possible Sunday morning as a weak cold front
progresses across the CWA: The long term period starts off dry with
a shortwave ridge pushing another day of surface high pressure on
Saturday. A weak cold front will deliver scattered showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. PWAT`s remain near the 90th percentile of climatology for
Gaylord, but very weak forcing will keep QPF low. Most areas will
remain at a trace but locations with stronger convection could see a
general tenth or so of measurable liquid.

-Weather turns towards a wetter pattern starting Tuesday as low
pressure settles into the Central CONUS: Attention for the long term
period is drawn towards the middle of next week as midlevel low
pressure settles into the central CONUS for the remainder of the
forecast period. Current guidance is depicting surface low pressure
to push a front through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday with
additional waves of precip at times Wednesday and Thursday. Still a
bit of uncertainty on impacts due to the chance of the front becomes
cut off and looses strength/moisture, but potential of heavier
showers and thunderstorms for the middle of next week continue to
grow for the Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Expect MVFR to IFR producing cigs to spread across the area from
southwest to northeast tonight. Showers, with perhaps a few
embedded thunderstorms, will accompany this band of lower
clouds. Will likely see some vis restrictions in the heavier
showers. Cigs will lift from west to east on Friday as a cold
front crosses the region. No significant wind concerns.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB