-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
123
FXUS61 KBGM 100551
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers will impact the area today, before
decreasing in coverage tonight. Additional on-and-off showers are
anticipated for this weekend, along with below normal
temperatures. A gradual warm up is expected next week, but
showers will remain in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1240 AM Update:

The forecast remains on track and no changes were needed with
the midnight update.

915 PM Update...

The hourly temperatures and dew points were touched up based on
the latest observations. Winds were also needed some minor
changes as many locations have dropped to zero for wspd. Winds
will remain calm tonight. Showers continue to spread eastward,
though are limited to the Southern Tier and areas southward.
PoPs needed little to no adjustments during this update.
However, sky cover was increased now that mid to high level
clouds blanket the region. With guidance favoring overcast skies
throughout the night, sky cover was bumped up to near 100% for
the majority of the overnight hours.

630 PM Update...

Overall, the forecast is doing well so far, so only some minor
changes were needed to the forecast with this update. Radar is
showing showing some showers moving in. It has some dry air to
overcome so it is mostly virga, but a few spots were reporting
rain in NEPA. Slight adjustments were made to PoPs over the next
few hours to reflect current activity and newer guidance.

300 PM Update...

A long wave trough is slowly digging into the region with cold
air advection aloft keeping temperatures on the cooler side this
afternoon compared to recent days. Temperatures were adjusted
up slightly across CNY as there has been some good sunshine
between the clouds but decided to lower temperatures along and
south of the NY/PA border as cirrus and low clouds have really
limited solar heating. Tonight, rain will be moving in from SW
to NE as a surface low slides through the mid Atlantic with an
inverted trough setting up over us with broad lift. Rain will be
steady but light and last through most of the day tomorrow with
QPF amounts ranging from near an inch in the higher elevations
of NEPA to around a 10th of an inch in the Mohawk valley. Friday
night was a little tricky in regards to the low temperature
forecast. A surface high is building in but with the upper level
trough axis basically directly overhead, there will be steeper
lapse rates and decent amount of low level moisture. Forecast
soundings are not quite saturated so there is a chance for some
clearing with light winds and with the cold air aloft already,
radiational cooling could cause temperatures to fall into the
30s if clouds clear overnight. Luckily the dew points will be
pretty high so it will be hard to get any frost and if there is
a frost it wont be damaging.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

A shortwave trough moves over the region Saturday, bringing
colder air and showery conditions for the weekend. This
shortwave trough quickly passes eastward, allowing short-lived
ridging over the area Sunday evening into early Monday morning,
where a small break from the showery conditions are likely.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorms are possible, mainly for
areas west of I-81, on Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures
in the high-50s/low-60s are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
255 PM Update...

Another shortwave moving over the Great Lakes will bring back
the rain showers for Monday. A weak warm front sets a boundary
across our area, increasing chances for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across the entire forecast area Monday. Monday
through Tuesday, as of now, seems like the most likely day for
thunder through the entire period, but severe storms are not
likely. Monday will be about 10 degrees warmer as the extension
of a weak warm front pushes into the area, with high
temperatures increasing into the high-60s/low-70s.

A disorganized system will supply deep southwesterly flow into
our region, continuing the showery conditions for Wednesday and
Thursday while increasing temperatures in the low- to mid-70s
through the midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Despite rain showers around, ceilings and visbys remain at VFR
as of 06Z. Still expecting this to become mainly MVFR to Fuel
Alternate over the next several hours. Despite guidance hinting
at IFR conditions this morning, this is looking less likely and
therefore kept restrictions no worse than Fuel Alternate for
now. Best chance for some IFR restrictions will actually be
tonight after the bulk of the rain moves out, as it is possible
that lingering low ceilings and/or fog/mist may be present.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/BTL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...BJG