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000
FXUS61 KBGM 171914
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
314 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY WARM WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CATSKILLS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE
WEST ACROSS NORTHERN PA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 IN NY STATE. 19Z SPC ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY.
SEEING JUST SCT CU ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NY AT THIS TIME WITH THE
ONLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UP NEAR THE ONTARIO LAKE SHORE. WILL
BE WATCHING FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT WITH THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE
LAKE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF NOTHING REALLY GETS GOING OUT
THAT WAY WE MAY DROP THE WATCH BY LATE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT WILL BE
DRY AND MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. SFC
RESPONSE WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE QUITE SMALL... ONLY MARGINALLY LARGE ENOUGH
FOR THUNDER AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WTIH HIGHS MOSTLY 70 TO 75... INCREASING TO 75
TO 80.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BRIEF DISC DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX...SFC HIPRES IN CNTRL AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
SHRT WVS DROPPING INTO THE REGION MAY BRING SOME SHWRS AND STORMS
SAT NGT AND SUN. SLOWLY RISONG TEMPS IS XPCTD WITH ABV NRML OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE RDG BLDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BRIEF DISC DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX...CONV WIL FIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HRS WITH BNDRY DROPPING SWRD...AIDED BY AN UPR WV AND JET MAX
ROTATIONG THRU THE LONG WV TROF. CLRG THIS EVENING WITH THE DRIER
AIR BUT WITH A CHANCE OF ST OVER THE NRN ZONES IN THE CAA. SOME
CLRG AND RETURN TO VFR ON TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NGT THRU FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MSE
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM