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000
FXUS61 KBGM 172315
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
715 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST, A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF SOMEWHAT
MOIST AIR WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 7 PM...AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER JUST PATCHY CI ADVECTING
OVERHEAD FROM UPSTREAM SYSTEM. THIS CI WILL CONT TO STREAM
OVERHEAD THRU THE NIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS, WINDS AND SKY COVER WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE.

AT 4 PM...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIN CI OVER THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED CU IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND NRN OTSEGO COUNTY.

OVERNIGHT, SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SCT/BKN CI. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER VALLEYS TO MID 40S ON THE HILLTOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO RISE WHILE SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
FA BY MONDAY MORNING. SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE. A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL ALSO PROVIDE A BETTER MOISTURE
SOURCE FOR THE FAR SE FA. DURING THIS PERIOD WEAK MID LEVEL WAA
FORCING WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. OVERALL, ALL
LIFTING AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS ARE WEAK AND CONSIDERING THIS IS
OCCURRING UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE JUST SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON MONDAY
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG
THEREFORE INCLUDED THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM BUT UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN THE EAST...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE RESULT WILL BE AN
EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL START OFF TO OUR NORTH BUT
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS
(40-50%) AS PERIODS OF RAIN APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET EVEN AT THIS
DISTANT VIEW. INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH CAPES OF 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY COOL OFF A BIT
TOWARD THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE EURO IS CORRECT...AS THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE MAY SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF COOLER AIR LOOKS
TO BE ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SWEEPING OUT EAST/EAST
BOUNDARY OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME HIGH CIRRUS
POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING ALONG WITH A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT NOW ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SPREAD EASTWARD LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO STAY SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS EXCEPT AT
KAVP WITH A BROKEN MID DECK OF CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 15 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR CALM TO L/V TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
5KTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN/RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN