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000
FXUS61 KBGM 180701
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BUT WILL ALSO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
3 AM UPDATE...
NW FLOW WL CONTINUE TO FLING CIRRUS AT CWA TDA. THIS WL RESULT IN
MOCLDY CONDS ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES TDA THO SOME SUNSHINE MAY FILTER
THRU. FURTHER NORTH INTO CNTRL NY SKIES WL BE PRTLY SUNNY WITH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INCRSG TO ALLOW FOR CU DVLPMNT THIS AFTN. ACRS
NRN ZONES EXPECT MOSUNNY CONDS FOR MOST OF THE DAY.

H8 TEMPS INCRS TO ARND +8C WITH GOOD MIXING UP TO AND POSSIBLY ABV
THIS LVL WL YIELD AFTN MAXES IN THE LWR 70S.

AS FOR POPS THIS AFTN, 00Z GFS CONTS TO SHOW SOME SHOWER DVLPMNT
ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVNG. 12Z EURO/00Z NAM DOES NOT
INDICATE THIS, HWVR SOME HIRES MODELS DO DEPICT SHOWERS DVLPNG. THIS
LKLY IN ASSOC WITH BNDRY ALOFT MVG NORTH THRU THE AREA COUPLED WITH
H9 WINDS ARND 15KTS ALONG WITH THETA-E RIDGE. PW VALUES IN RESPONSE
TO LLM INCRSG RISE FM 0.5 INCHES TO 0.8 INCHES ACRS FAR SRN CNTYS.
THUS WL SEE A VRY SLGT RISE IN POPS AFT 21Z ACRS NEPA WITH JUST AN
ISOLD SHOWER MENTION FOR LATE THIS AFTN. MAY ALSO SEE A SHOWER OR
TWO DVLP OROGRAPHICALLY ACRS WRN CATS TDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...
BNDRY LIFTS THRU TONIGHT LEADING TO STRONG SE FLOW JUST ABV THE SFC
AFT 06Z ARND 25KTS. THIS WL LEAD TO AN INCRS IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE
ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES AFT MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND
MARINE LYR APPCHG. MOCLDY SKIES WL OVRSPRD ENTIRE CWA TWD 12Z WITH
LOWEST CIGS LOCATED OVR POCONOS AND WYOMING/LACKAWANNA VLYS. HV KEPT
IN ISOLD SHOWER MENTION THRU 12Z SUNDAY, THO IT IS POSSIBLE PCPN MAY
BE IN THE FORM OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. WITH MOCLDY SKIES AND SRLY FLOW
OVRNGT LOWS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 50S MOST LOCALES.

SUNDAY WL FEATURE MUCH OF THE SAME AS TNGT WITH STRONG LL MOISTURE
RIDING NORTH INTO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MOCLDY SKIES. TEMPS WL WARM
AGAIN INTO THE 70S WITH CHC FOR SHOWERS CONTG OFF AND ON THRU THE
DAY. PW VALUES INCRS TO ARND 1 INCH WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
FRCG EXPECTED AS UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN FM THE WEST.

UL RIDGE APPEARS TO HOLD TUFF FOR SUN NGT, HWVR 00Z NAM/00Z GFS/12Z
EC INDICATE UL WEAKNESS DVLPNG IN THE OH/TN VLYS. GIVEN INCRSG SFC
DWPTS AND CONTD SERLY FLOW INTO CWA, ALONG WITH WEAKNESS
UNDERCUTTING H5 RIDGE WL CONT MENTION FOR CHC SHOWERS SUNDAY NGT
WITH VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF EXPECTED. SOME MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF LL FLOW BCMG MORE SWRLY WITH TIME AFT 06Z
MONDAY WITH MAJORITY OF POPS CONFINED TO SRN ZONES AFTER THIS TIME.

INSTABILITY INCREASES FOR MONDAY WITH CAPES APPCHG 500 J/KG ON
LATEST NAM/GFS SOLNS THUS HV MAINTAINED CHCS FOR THUNDER ON MONDAY
AND THRU THE OVRNGT PD. DWPTS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S BY 12Z
TUESDAY WITH CHCS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONT THRU THE END OF
THE SHORT TERM AND BYND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
200 PM UPDATE...

SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM BUT UNSETTLED LONG TERM PERIOD FOLLOWED BY
A GRADUAL COOL DOWN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN THE EAST...IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE THE RESULT WILL BE AN
EAST/WEST SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL START OFF TO OUR NORTH BUT
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW
THIS BOUNDARY MEANDERING NEAR OR OVER OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID- WEEK. WITH THAT IN MIND WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS
(40-50%) AS PERIODS OF RAIN APPEAR LIKE A GOOD BET EVEN AT THIS
DISTANT VIEW. INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
WITH CAPES OF 500 J/KG THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE MAY COOL OFF A BIT
TOWARD THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE EURO IS CORRECT...AS THE
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE MAY SLIDE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN. A MORE PRONOUNCED SHOT OF COOLER AIR
LOOKS TO BE ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS BOTH THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...SWEEPING OUT EAST/EAST
BOUNDARY OUT TO SEA.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU 06Z SUN. THERE WILL BE THE POTNL
FOR SOME BR THIS MRNG AT RME. AT ELM...THICKER AS/CI DECK SHUD
PRECLUDE FOG DVLPMNT. LATER THIS AFTN...PROFILES SUGGEST THE
DVLPMNT OF A 4-5KFT CU DECK ACRS THE SRN TIER OF NY AND NE PA.
AFTER 04Z...POTNL FOR A MARINE LAYER TO WORK INTO THE SRN TIER
AND NE PA ON SE/SRLY LOW LVL FLOW...AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT
ELM/BGM/AVP AFTER 03-04Z. WINDS L&V OR LGT SE TIL MID MRNG...THEN
SE TO SRLY FLOW ARND 10 KTS LATE MRNG PERSISTING INTO THE EVNG
HRS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...POTNL FOR MVFR SUNDAY NGT INTO MON MRNG
MAINLY SRN TIER AND NE PA.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...