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000
FXUS61 KBGM 141811
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WILL END UP
YIELDING TO A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SYSTEM WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 PM UPDATE...
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL FOR A DRY AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY ADVANCING THIN HIGH CLOUDS HINTING AT THE PRESENCE OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM...IS
FOR POSSIBLE GUSTY CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCE
LIT UP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/IDAHO SUNDAY
EVENING AND CARRIED THEM THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT. THAT ACTIVITY FELL APART BUT NEW STORMS ARE FIRING CLOSE
THE UPPER WAVE IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. WHILE DIGGING UPPER WAVE WILL
PASS TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST AN AXIS OF VORTICITY
MAY EXTEND DOWN FRONT IT TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ALONG WITH THE
COLD FRONT.

COMPLICATED SET UP MAKES FOR A FAR FROM CERTAIN FORECAST IN
REGARDS TO CONVECTION DETAILS. MODELS ARE GETTING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON WARM SECTOR GETTING INTO MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOWS UP VIA A NARROWING AXIS OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES AND
THETA-E RIDGE AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM PARAMETERS SUCH AS 0-6KM AND 0-3KM BULK
SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES RAISE EYEBROWS FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...DYNAMICS ARE BETTER FAR NORTH...AND JET
PLACEMENT IS NOT IDEAL WITH OUR REGION BEING IN THE SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE EXIT REGION. THIS IS NOT AT ALL STRONGLY FORCED IN
REGARDS TO 500MB HEIGHT FALLS /NEUTRAL AT BEST/. CAPES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED CAPE...PERHAPS EVEN NEARLY 1000 J/KG...ARE DEPICTED IN THE
NAM BUT MUCH LESS SO IN THE GFS. THERE ARE THUS COMPETING FACTORS
IN THIS PARTICULAR SET UP. AT THIS POINT...STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS A 5 PERCENT CONTOUR RISK OF SEVERE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...WITH THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA AT LEAST IN GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK. I INCLUDED MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IN NEPA AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
CENTRAL NY. LONG STORY SHORT IS HIGH SHEAR-LIMITED CAPE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH LESS THAN IDEAL UPPER DYNAMICS.

WHILE THUNDER DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST SHOWERS LOOK LIKE
A GOOD BET AND I HAVE THUS KEPT LIKELY RANGE FOR POPS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY PEAKING AROUND AN INCH
HOWEVER...AND SPEED OF SYSTEM...WILL GREATLY LIMIT AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FNT PASSES WED NGT AND CONTS TO DROP SOUTH ON THU AS A BROAD
BUT SHALLOW UPR TROF DVLPS. THIS SHD KEEP ANY SHWRS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BNDRY WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA ON THU.

MODEL TEMP GUID IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FOR THE PD LDG TO A HIER
CONFIDENCE TEMP FCST. IN GNRL...TEMPS WILL CONT TO RECVR AND BY
MUCH NEARER TO NRML FOR THE PD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO COASTAL VIRGINIA, WHILE A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY AIR AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY ACROSS NY/PA.

BY SUNDAY, A STRENGTHENING CYCLONE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES. MOISTURE FLOW WILL INCREASE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WITH
A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN AND TRY TO EXTEND
ITS INFLUENCE WESTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LIKELY INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
NORTHWARD LIFTING WARM FRONT. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LGT
SHWRS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS AND LOWER WYOMING VLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING HOWEVER DRY LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED VIRGA. MAIN FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HRS. EXPECT SHWRS/POSSIBLE STORMS TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z ACROSS THE WEST AS WEAKLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE INSERTED PROB30 GROUPS AT BOTH ITH AND ELM
WITH REMAINING SITES LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED AFTERNOON INTO THU AM...OCNL RESTRICTIONS PSBL...FROM SCTD -SHRA
AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON -TSRA FROM STALLED BOUNDARY IN VICINITY.

THU AFTERNOON THRU FRI...VFR.

SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE AT AVP WITH POSSIBLE SHWR ACTIVITY. VFR
ELSEWHERE.

SUN...VFR RETURNS REGION-WIDE.


&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOWS TIED IN BINGHAMTON THIS MORNING /30 DEGREES
INITIALLY SET IN 1996/...AND AVOCA /29 DEGREES IN 1996/. SYRACUSE
STAYED SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE ITS RECORD LOW...WHICH IS 30 DEGREES
SET IN 1939.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...CMG
CLIMATE...MDP