000
FXUS61 KBGM 151322
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
922 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR A WARM AND DRY DAY, TODAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
920 AM...FOG HAS BURNED OUT OF THE VLYS QUICKLY IN THE PAST HR.
SIMPLE UPDATE TO REMOVE THE REMAINING FOG FROM THE GRIDS AND
UPDATE THE TEMPS. PRVS DISC BLO.


345 AM UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN EARLY THIS MORNING AND REMAINING IN
CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT TO CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG HAS FORMED. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY
10 AM. AFTER THAT SUNNY SKIES WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH
CLOUDS. MOS HIGH TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO THE SE WHILE A STRONG SFC LOW MOVES
ESE INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WITH IT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SPC HAS
THE CWA IN A SEE TEXT AND 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING OF PRECIP ONSET. CLOUDY
SKIES MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE. SFC FORCING BEST WITH A
PRE FRONTAL TROF LATE MORNING. DYNAMICS GOOD WITH FALLING UL
HEIGHTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
DECENT JET. COOLING AT MID LEVELS PROVIDING EXTRA CAPE. AFTER THE
TROF GOES THROUGH WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL. HOW STRONG THE
CONVECTION WILL BE DEPENDS ON DYING CONVECTION FROM LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT MOVING EAST. IF CONVECTION HOLD OFF UNTIL MIDDAY AND WE
GET SOME HEATING THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. QPF OF AROUND HALF AN INCH EXPECTED IN
NY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NE PA. RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN
BANKS.

WEAK UL TROF CONTINUES INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW GOES FROM
MICHIGAN DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE INTO MAINE MONDAY. A SLOW MOVING
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE SHORT
WAVES AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING SUN NGT TO MONDAY. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
MONDAY NGT AS A COOL CONTINENTAL CANADIAN SFC HIGH MOVES SE
TOWARDS NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 AM SAT UPDATE... LTL CHG MADE TO THE LONG-TERM GRIDS THIS
MRNG...AS 00Z NWP/WPC CONSENSUS BASICALLY MAINTAINS CONTINUITY.

ON THE LARGE-SCALE...AN ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST TROUGH...CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE...AND EAST COAST TROUGH PATN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...WITH RISING HGTS ANTICIPATED FOR NY/PA DURG THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PTNS OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BUILDS...AND
EASTERN TROUGH GENERALLY FLATTENS WITH TIME.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WX...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO RAIN-FREE CONDS
MUCH OF THE TIME...UNDER A DRY W-NW FLOW REGIME...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS FOR MID TO LATE JUNE (HIGHS FROM THE 70S-MID 80S). THE MAIN
POINTS OF CONTENTION AMONGST THE MODELS ARE RIGHT AT THE START OF
THE PD (TUE)...AND OUT AT THE END (FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND). ON
TUE...WE CONTD THE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA...AS THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL
AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER EVOLUTION OF AN UPR-LVL WAVE...AND DEPARTURE
OF THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRNT DURG THE DAY. FOR THE LATTER PTN OF THE
PD...A SLGT CHC OF CONVECTION FRI STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS VERY
EARLY JUNCTURE...WITH THE NEXT SFC COLD FRNT/SERIES OF UPR-LVL S/WVS
PLAUSIBLY WITHIN RANGE BY THEN.

PREV DISC... AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD ERN TROF THRU THE FCST PD
KEEPING THE AREA COLL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF
ON TUE AS A COLD FNT EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHRP UPR WV PULLS
NWRD INTO CANADA. THIS IS FLWD BY A LRG HIPRES THAT DROPS FROM THE
LAKES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LTR WED. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE
TROF MAY BRING MORE SHWRS OR TRWS THU AND FRI...WITH THE GREATEST
RISK OVER THE NRN ZONES NEARER THE PATH OF THE UPR WV.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE MEX AND HPC/ECMWF TEMP GUID WITH THE MEX
WRMR. CNSDRG THE BROAD TROF AND H8 TEMPS THE COOLER GUID SEEMED
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE PD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS WRMR TWRD THE GFS FOR AFTN HI/S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SAT UPDATE...LINGERING RESTRICTIONS FROM MRNG FOG SHOULD BE
GONE BY ARND 13Z. OTHWS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST
OF THE PD.

THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY SHWRS/PSBL
RESTRICTIONS WILL DVLP EARLY SUNDAY MRNG. FOR NOW...WE ONLY
BROUGHT IN LGT PCPN (UNRESTRICTED) AT KELM PRIOR TO 12Z SUN.

SFC WINDS WILL TURN NWLY AT ARND 10 KT LTR THIS MRNG AND DURG THE
AFTN...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S AND SE TNT (5-10 KT).

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON/TUE...OCNL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA.

WED...VFR RETURNS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ
AVIATION...HEDEN/MLJ