754
FXUS61 KBGM 080750
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
350 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will roll through the region early
this morning, but most of the area will see dry and fair weather
prevail by late morning. This will last through the evening for
most areas, except near the New York State Thruway corridor,
where a weak cold front could set off a few additional
thunderstorms. The next disturbance will pass south of the area
on Thursday, with showers mainly over southern portions of the
area. These showers will spread north Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
350 AM Update...
Clusters of showers and embedded thunderstorms are pushing into
the Finger Lakes currently, and will soon enter NEPA. With weak
elevated instability in place, expect just brief heavy
downpours and lightning as hazards.

This activity will push east of the area by late morning, with
drier air aloft pushing in rather quickly. Most of the day will
actually be quite nice, warm, and dry. A weak cold front will
slide south towards the Thruway corridor this afternoon, as a
shortwave trough moves across the northern half of New York.
Slightly higher surface dewpoints near the front, and steeper
lapse rates closer to the upper level shortwave trough will help
yield SBCAPE values of 500-750 J/Kg in a narrow strip along the
Lake Plain and into the Mohawk Valley. A few showers and
thunderstorms are likely to develop in this area as the front
approaches late this afternoon. Individual storms will drift ESE
as the front pushes slowly south, and will weaken in the evening
as they run into drier and more stable air across the Allegheny
Plateau. One or two storms could push severe limits as bulk
shear appears sufficient, though the weaker instability/ "skinny
CAPE" profiles are a limiting factor.

Temperatures will once again range from the middle to upper-70s
across the area, with lower-80s in the Wyoming Valley. Deeper
mixing could tap into some gustier winds aloft this afternoon,
with a few gusts pushing 30 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday is presenting a rather frustrating challenge for a Day
2 forecast. The NAM now appears to favor keeping most of the
area dry, including much of NEPA, until late Thursday night into
Friday morning as a series of weak shortwave troughs embedded in
enhanced mid-level westerly flow looks to stay further south of
the NY/PA line. Took an incremental approach and lowered PoPs
for Thursday across northern areas. Though the trend towards a
more favorable forecast for the middle of this week (compared to
how things looked from a few days back) is noted.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update:

An area of low pressure will slide eastward south of our region
Thursday night. This will bring a resurgence of rain showers to
the area. Then on Friday, a shortwave trough will bring more
rain showers to the area. With the cool airmass in place,
temperatures on Friday will be well below normal with highs
only in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

The trough moves east of the area Friday night, which will
result in a decreasing coverage of showers. However, still
cannot rule out a few lingering showers, particularly across
Central NY and east of I-81. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy
skies are expected with lows in the 40s.

More showery weather is anticipated for Saturday, particularly
in the afternoon as yet another trough approaches the area.
Temperatures will remain cool with highs only in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Then additional scattered showers with lows in the
40s is expected Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update:

The unsettled and cool weather pattern continues at least
through Monday with multiple shortwave troughs moving through
the area. Specific timing of these shortwaves remains uncertain
this far out and therefore timing of showers remains uncertain
as well. In between each shortwave, brief dry periods of weather
are possible. By Tuesday, ridging may start to build in which
may finally bring temperatures closer to normal and perhaps
introduce drier weather. However, some model guidance keeps the
persistent troughing around with additional showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail, with plenty of high clouds across the
region. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated
with an upper level disturbance and surface trough are moving
into western NY and PA. 06Z HREF members and subsequent HRRR
runs suggest the bulk of the showers will attempt to avoid
ITH/ELM/BGM, but radar trends show increasing thunderstorms
upstream over far SW NY and NW PA. So, will keep in the threat
of showers, some heavier with visibility restrictions. Guidance
has trended more optimistic with ceilings as the showers roll
through, and this is supported by upstream observations as well.
Kept most sites out of fuel alt levels with this set of TAFs.

Showers will move out shortly after dawn, with VFR conditions
returning. West winds will increase later this morning and
afternoon, with gusts around 25 knots possible.

Additional showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
as another upper level disturbance rolls across northern NY, and
a weak cold front pushes southward into the area. A few stronger
thunderstorms are possible, mainly after 20Z. Coverage is
questionable, and for now left thunder out of the TAFs, though
PROB30s may be added later for SYR and RME.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Periods of showers with some
restrictions as multiple disturbances pass through the region,
especially Thursday-Friday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...ES/MPH