000
FXUS61 KBGM 141802
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ACCOMPANY A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA, MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1 PM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CLEARING ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND POINTS EAST THROUGH THE
HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN NY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS NOW SHOWING
SOME EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE FIRST LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED JUST WEST OF ALBANY.
CONSIDERING THAT MUCH OF THE FINGER LAKES AND POINTS NORTH ALONG
THE LAKE PLAIN STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAIN
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR.
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHICH IS ALSO WHERE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE BLOSSOMED DUE TO LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND BETTER
FORCING ALOFT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING
OVERHEAD. IN ANY EVENT...WILL MAINTAIN A SCT MENTION ACROSS THE
EAST WHILE TAPERING DOWN TO AN ISO MENTION OUT WEST.

1000 AM UPDATE... FCST IN GREAT SHAPE SO FAR...NOT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. MAIN CONCERNS
TODAY CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE I-81 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR SEEN FROM THIS JUNCTURE REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AS INCOMING 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
BUILDING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ANY EVENT...CURRENT
FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

630 AM UPDATE... HRLY T/TD VALUES UPDATED TO COME MORE INTO LINE
WITH REALITY. ALSO DROPPED POPS TO JUST CHC OVR ALL ZONES AT THIS
TIME. WK SECONDARY BNDRY POISED TO ENTER INTO CWA WITH LIGHT
SHOWERS DVLPNG ACRS THE TWIN TIERS.

SKIES HV CLRD ACRS FINGER LKS AS OF 10Z, LEADING TO DVLPMNT OF FOG.
DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS CLDS QUICKLY SLIP SOUTH
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY. THUS AN HR OR TWO OF MOCLR SKIES
EXPECTED.

330 AM UPDATE...
996MB SFC LOW SITTING OFF THE NY BIGHT WITH GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS
UP OFF OF CAPE COD. GIVEN THE STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS IN THIS AREA
AND 00Z NAM INDICATING LOW HEADING NORTHEAST TWD THE CAPE COD COAST
BY 12Z THIS MRNG, RAIN SHUD EXIT THE CWA BY DAWN. EXTENSIVE LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WL BE PRESENT AND LKLY RESULT IN LOW CLDS AND/OR PATCHY FOG
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS EVIDENT BY COMPARING 00Z BUF RAOB
AGAINST 00Z ALY RAOB. 00Z ALY SNDG INDICATE SATURATED ATMOS BLO
500MB WITH PW VALUES OF 1.38 INCHES. BUF RAOB SHOWS DRYING OCCURRING
IN WAKE OF LOPRES AND PW VALUES DOWN BLO 1.00 INCH. THIS DRY AIR WL
WORK IN FM NW TO SE BTWN 12Z AND 15Z BRINGING AN END TO WHATEVER
PCPN MAY RMN ALONG WITH CLD CVR.

PSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE MRNG WL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS ARND 70F AS
H8 TEMPS RMN ARND 10C TDA. SECONDARY SFC BNDRY WL SLIP THRU THE CWA
THIS AFTN LDNG TO ADDNL LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTM OR TWO. QPF
AMNTS WL GNRLY RANGE FM 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES FM 12Z-00Z. 00Z RAOB FM
CWMW UP IN QUEBEC INDICATED CAPES ARND 500 J/KG ABOUT THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND 00Z NAM INDICATES VALUES OF 1000+ FOR THIS AFTN,
WHICH SEEMS EXTREME GIVEN THE AIRMASS. THIS IS LKLY DUE TO THE NAM
BEING CLOSE TO 60F FOR SFC DWPTS WHERE IN REALITY EXPECT THESE TO BE
IN THE L/M 50S. THEREFORE, EXPECTING SOME INSTABILITY THO NOTHING AS
ABSURD AS NAM IS INDICATING. HV ADDED IN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AFT
15Z AS BNDRY SLIPS CLSR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM UPDATE...
HIPRES WL BUILD IN FM THE WEST TONIGHT, LEADING TO MOCLR SKIES AND
LGT NW WINDS. DRY AIR WL WORK IN FM THE NORTH PREVENTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FOG DVLPNG.

DRYING DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIPRES PARKS ITSELF OVR THE
REGION. MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ALL DAY WITH DWPTS DIPPING INTO THE
40S AND HIGH CLIMBING INTO THE MID-70S.

NEXT SYSTEM WL APPCH THE GREAT LKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OCCLUDED
FNT APPCHG THE CNTRL GREAT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY. CLOUDS WL INCRS ACRS
WRN AND NRN ZONES THRU SUN MRNG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 300K THETA
LYR INCRSG LEADING TO CHC POPS OVR THE FINGER LKS.

STRONG S/WV WL MV THRU THE AREA ON SUNDAY ACCOMPANIED BY WK SFC
BNDRY RESULTING IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH CHC FOR THUNDER DRG THE
AFTN HRS. BEST THUNDER CHCS APPEAR TO BE ACRS THE WEST WHERE
SHOWALTERS DROP TWD 0C AFT 18Z, BUT FOR NOW HV RETAINED SLGT CHC FOR
THUNDER THRU 18Z, THEN CHC THUNDER ENTIRE CWA AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SPLIT HAIRS AT THIS POINT. AS FOR AFTN MAXES, THINK THE WARMEST
TEMPS WL BE LOCATED ACRS SRN ZONES WITH NRN ZONES PRETTY JUNKED UP
FM S/WV AND ASSOC TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

AREA REMAINS UNDER A BROAD ERN TROF THRU THE FCST PD KEEPING THE
AREA COLL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. SHWRS WILL TAPER OFF ON TUE AS
A COLD FNT EXITS TO THE EAST AND A SHRP UPR WV PULLS NWRD INTO
CANADA. THIS IS FLWD BY A LRG HIPRES THAT DROPS FROM THE LAKES
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LTR WED. SHRT WV DROPPING INTO THE TROF MAY
BRING MORE SHWRS OR TRWS THU AND FRI...WITH THE GREATEST RISK OVER
THE NRN ZONES NEARER THE PATH OF THE UPR WV.

SIGNIFICANT DFRNCS IN THE MEX AND HPC/ECMWF TEMP GUID WITH THE MEX
WRMR. CNSDRG THE BROAD TROF AND H8 TEMPS THE COOLER GUID SEEMED
MORE APPROPRIATE FOR THE PD. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH SLGT
ADJUSTMENTS WRMR TWRD THE GFS FOR AFTN HI/S.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

GOOD AMT OF FAIR WX CU OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH SOME SCT CONV
SHWRS OVER THE CATS AND POCONOS. WITH HTG AND SLOW DRY XPCT A
CONTD RISE IN CIGS SO THAT ALL STATIONS ARE VFR BY ARND 20Z.
OVRNGT...CLRG SKIES SHD ALLOW FOR VLY FOG TO FORM AND LIFR CONDS
AT ELM FOR A TIME BEFORE SUNRISE. AFT THAT...MUCH DRIER AIR UNDER
HIPRES WILL RETURN ALL STATIONS TO VFR THRU THE END OF THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT/SUN AM...VFR.

SUN PM/MON/TUE...MAINLY VFR...BUT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

WED...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...CMG/PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM