754
FXUS63 KBIS 141752
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1252 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the week.

- Near average temperatures are expected this week, with highs
  in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Based on the latest radar and CAM trends, further slashed PoPs
through the afternoon and evening. That said, still looks like
isolated to scattered showers will begin developing again this
afternoon mainly in the south central, as well as along and
east of Highway 83. Overall chances for thunder are looking less
and less likely, although a few rumbles remain possible,
especially in the south central. Showers should then become more
organized tonight mainly in the south central, including the
James River Valley.

UPDATE
Issued at 909 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Scattered showers continue in the eastern half of the state this
morning. Based on the latest radar trends and CAMs, it appears
there will be a break this morning through the early afternoon
before redevelopment occurs as the next shortwave passes through.
Therefore, gave PoPs a major haircut, especially in the west,
this morning through the early afternoon. It remains the case
that severe storms seem unlikely this afternoon, and while a
strong storm or two is not totally out of the question, the
potential seems low in that regard as well.

UPDATE
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers continue to move east across the area this morning.
Thunderstorm activity has ceased for the most part, as
instability continued to decrease through the overnight hours.
Scattered showers are still on track to continue through the
rest of the day, however confidence has decreased slightly in
the overall extent of this. As such, PoPs have been slightly
reduced, but not by much. Overall chances for thunderstorms
remains largely the same. Otherwise, the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across
the state early this morning, as a mid-level shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front moves through from west to east. While
the thunderstorms were a bit more prevalent a few hours ago, the
instability has really taken a nosedive overnight, so the risk for
strong to severe storm development has decreased quite a bit. Some
small hail may be possible in any brief pulse-ups, but apart from
that, these storms should mostly just bring some rain showers and
gusty winds, along with lightning. Lows this morning will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper level smoke from the Canadian
wildfires is still present, and may make skies somewhat hazy at
times.

Another shortwave is expected to pass across the Dakotas through the
day today, which should bring continued chances for precipitation
across much of the area. A majority of the southwest and central
portions of North Dakota will see 40 to 60% chances for rain, with
these chances decreasing heading to the northwest. There will also
be a 20 to 35% chance for thunderstorms across much of the area
today as well, as current short-term deterministic guidance suggests
a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE extending northward from
South Dakota towards the Canadian border. However, 0-3 km shear
values only max out around 10 to 15 kts, helping limit any severe
storm threat. There could be very pulse-y strong storms with gusty
winds and small hail, but these will be short lived should anything
develop. The SPC continues to advertise just a General Thunderstorm
risk area for much of the area. Otherwise, high temperatures today
are forecast to largely be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with
southeasterly winds around 10 to 15 mph, veering through the day and
becoming mostly northwesterly by the late evening hours.

As the aforementioned shortwave exits the area tonight and into
Wednesday morning, the active pattern is expected to continue, with
additional mid-level shortwaves passing across the area from the
west. Prominent mid-level ridging off the Pacific coastline will
keep us in this pattern through the rest of the week, with near
daily chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.
Deterministic guidance suggests similar conditions for each day when
it comes to instability and shear, with the idea being that there
will be daily chances for thunderstorms, but with minimal chances
for any of these thunderstorms to become strong to severe. Daytime
high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area through the week and into the weekend, with
overnight lows largely in the 40s. Tentative signs of the active
pattern breaking down are beginning to show in the forecast for the
start of next week, but model disagreement is quite high in terms of
the upper-level flow setup, so we will continue to monitor when
exactly this active pattern will end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are present for western through
central North Dakota. A few returns are present in the James
River Valley, which may result in some light showers early this
afternoon, although conditions should remain VFR otherwise.
Additional showers, along with perhaps a few thunderstorms, are
expected to develop in the south central, as well as areas
along and east of Highway 83. Showers should become more
organized later tonight mainly in the south central, including
the James River Valley. In regard to TAF terminals, showers in
the vicinity of KBIS are a little more uncertain compared to
KJMS as they may develop too far east. Beyond shower and
thunderstorm chances, MVFR/IFR ceilings are generally expected
to impact all terminals sometime tonight into Wednesday morning.
KXWA may maintain a scattered rather than broken cloud deck,
however.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Telken