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000
FXUS64 KBMX 192010
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
310 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

The front is near the I-20 corridor early this afternoon. Activity
along the front has diminished since this morning, and we`re still
dealing with low-level clouds which have slowed down heating trends
for some spots across the northern half of the area. There`s plenty
of dry air aloft, so clouds should continue to gradually mix over
the next couple of hours which will allow for more sun. Still
expecting highs to reach the mid 80s at most locations this
afternoon. MUCAPE is progged to increase to around 2000-3000 J/kg as
we reach peak heating. Some isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may begin to develop along the slow-moving frontal
boundary, near the I-20 corridor, within the next few hours. Based
on the sounding this morning as well as area forecast soundings,
there`s still a large amount of dry air beginning around 750mb and
extending up through the tropospheric column which is expected to
hinder vertical growth and longevity of any thunderstorm activity
this afternoon, but there may be a few instances of gusty sub-severe
winds and/or small hail if thunderstorms are able to grow tall
enough with the help of weak surface convergence along the front.
Most of the activity will diminish this evening.

As the front progresses further into low-level ridging over the Gulf
of Mexico, it`s expected to slow its southward progression and
become oriented more east to west along the Gulf Coast region
tonight. For the most part, the cooler airmass will stay north of
Central Alabama, so it will be a mild night with temperatures
ranging from the lower 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast. A
significant increase in deeper moisture is expected to arrive
tomorrow morning through the westerly flow aloft. Short term
guidance has begun to indicate greater coverage of rain and some
storms tomorrow afternoon with isentropic lift along the remnant
frontal boundary to our south. Highest PoPs look to focus across
the southern half of the area, with the activity moving west to
east. As such, began the forecast trend of decreasing highs for
tomorrow with the expectation of more rain and cloud coverage,
which should also limit achievable instability. Highs will range
from the mid 60s northwest to mid 80s southeast.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

Rain chances remain pretty high Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon as a southern stream shortwave impulse traverses a
stationary front along the Gulf Coast. I increased PoPs per
latest guidance and increasing confidence, and also kept slight
chances thunder chances southward amidst areas of <500 J/kg
MUCAPE. Storm total QPF remains generally 0.5 to 1.5" with highest
amounts south where some storms could manifest. A period of stable
weather remains forecast thereafter with high pressure and a
longwave trough across the eastern CONUS.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

Saturday night, scattered to widespread activity is expected to
move into the area from west to east through the rest of the night
and the early morning, thanks to a boundary remaining over the
area. Flow north of this boundary will be from the north, while
flow south of the boundary will be from the southwest.
Instabilities are very low across the state, and though shear
should be decent through the day, the greatest shear values will
be along and south of this boundary. The chance for thunder is
low with isolated thunderstorms possible, so included a slight
chance for thunderstorms in areas where the shear was higher.
Temperatures Sunday are expected to be much colder than normal
thanks to the overcast skies and northerly flow. By Sunday
evening, most rain should be east of the area with high pressure
approaching the state from the west. Northerly flow around this
high will prevail across the entire area, bringing drier and cool
air into Alabama beginning Sunday evening through the beginning of
the work week. Temperatures could drop up to ten degrees below
normal for this time of year Sunday night and Monday night.

Monday through Wednesday, high pressure will move across the
southeast with dry conditions and a gradual warming trend
expected. A low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes
region By Wednesday into Thursday. Models are trying to bring a
slight chance for rain to the area. Will include a slight chance
for rain in the far northern areas for now, and will keep an eye
on the system as it progresses.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2024

An MVFR cloud deck continues to slowly rise and mix apart this
afternoon. Expect to see VFR conditions return within the next
couple of hours. Some scattered convection may develop along a weak
frontal boundary near TCL/BHM/EET/ANB/ASN this afternoon. However,
coverage is expected to be limited, and there`s some uncertainty on
whether or not terminals will be affected, so did not include a
mention of TS in the TAF at this time. Will amend as necessary. The
front will move south of the area tonight, and IFR/MVFR ceilings
as well as some patchy fog will redevelop after 00Z. Sfc winds
will take on a northerly heading tomorrow morning behind the
frontal passage.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A front is moving into Central Alabama this afternoon promoting
continued cloudiness and light/variable 20 ft winds. Moisture
values remain elevated with RHs 50-70% at this time. Wetting rains
remain in the forecast with greatest chances Saturday afternoon
through Sunday afternoon. Drier conditions return to the region on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     57  71  46  58 /  30  20  70  80
Anniston    60  74  49  59 /  30  20  80  80
Birmingham  59  71  49  58 /  30  50  80  80
Tuscaloosa  60  70  49  60 /  20  60  80  80
Calera      61  73  50  59 /  30  50  80  90
Auburn      65  79  54  60 /  20  40  60  80
Montgomery  65  79  55  61 /  20  50  60  80
Troy        64  82  56  63 /  10  50  40  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...86/Martin