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000
FXUS64 KBMX 181922
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
222 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024

A broad area of low-level ridging is centered over the Central and
Eastern Gulf of Mexico while lower amplitude mid-level ridging is
also present over the Eastern CONUS, producing westerly flow aloft.
Warm conditions are expected this afternoon with a mix of sun and
clouds. Highs will reach the mid 80s. There will be an opportunity
for some storms late today and into the evening hours as an embedded
shortwave moves from the Midsouth region and across the Tennessee
Valley. Some thunderstorms associated with this feature are already
ongoing near the Mississippi River, but that activity has really
struggled to maintain intensity with eastward extent as we still
have residual dry air in the mid-levels. Some deeper moisture is
confined near the shortwave, so expect the thunderstorms to
eventually move into western portions of the area early this evening
as the shortwave moves east, but instability will be on the decline
by that point. Any strong storms moving through Mississippi should
be on a weakening trend as they reach Central Alabama, so expect
the activity to be sub-severe.

Meanwhile, a surface low is forecast to moves towards the Ohio
Valley tonight dragging a cold front across the Lower MS River
Valley. Convection along the southern sections of the front will
really struggle as it moves further into an unfavorable environment
dominated by the Gulf ridge and lacking in deep moisture. As such,
expect another round of decaying showers and a few storms to affect
primarily the far northern portions of the area after midnight
before diminishing by sunrise. Patchy fog appears likely tomorrow
morning, especially in the south. Will monitor trends to see if a
Dense Fog Advisory is needed. The frontal boundary will be near the
I-20 corridor by tomorrow afternoon. As temperatures warm into the
lower to mid 80s, some isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
develop. Despite MUCAPE ranging from 2000-3000 J/kg along the
surface boundary, thunderstorm growth is expected to struggle
through the dry air, limiting coverage, intensity, and longevity,
but gusty thunderstorm winds will be possible in a few instances.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024

A late season cold front will push southward through Alabama Friday
night. Scattered showers and storms will linger into the evening
hours Friday due to the presence of a warm and unstable air mass
south of the cold front. The activity should dissipate by midnight.
A lull in the rain late Friday night through Saturday morning as
the air mass stabilizes north of the cold front. An elevated warm
front will bring scattered showers and a few elevated storms to
central Alabama Saturday afternoon and evening. A more potent
upper level impulse will eject from Texas Saturday night. This
impulse will bring widespread showers to Central Alabama on
Sunday. Forecast soundings show very stable low levels with
minimal upper level instability on Sunday, and removed any mention
of thunderstorms. The showers should exit east Alabama late
Sunday afternoon with clearing and colder air moving into the area
Sunday night. Less humid and cooler Monday and Tuesday.


58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024

A brief period of VFR conditions is expected for the first half of
this TAF period, but some convection is forecast to move into the
area this evening associated with a mid-level shortwave. Coverage
is expected to decrease with time. With most of the activity
ending by 06Z, IFR ceilings are then expected to develop with some
patchy fog possible, mainly at MGM/TOI. Ceilings will be very
slow to rise tomorrow morning.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon and evening,
mainly along and north of I-20. Max RH values tonight will be
near 100% with 20ft southwest winds 2-4 mph. A cold front will
move into northwest Alabama Friday afternoon. Scattered storms
will develop along and ahead of the front. Min RH values on Friday
60-70% north of I-20 and 50-60% south of I-20. 20 ft winds on
Friday southwest 3-5 mph. A wet pattern will continue into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  81  57  74 /  50  50  20  20
Anniston    64  82  59  76 /  50  40  40  20
Birmingham  66  81  60  74 /  50  40  30  30
Tuscaloosa  65  82  60  75 /  60  40  30  40
Calera      66  81  61  76 /  50  40  30  40
Auburn      66  82  65  81 /  20  20  20  40
Montgomery  65  85  64  82 /  20  20  20  40
Troy        64  85  64  85 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...86