283
FXUS65 KBOI 262047
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
247 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Scattered rain
showers have developed this afternoon in Baker and Malheur
Counties in Oregon and in the Owyhee Mountains in Idaho as
an upper trough comes in from the northwest. Showers will
develop over higher terrain in the rest of our CWA later
today and marginal instability will support isolated
thunderstorms (10-20 percent coverage) through sunset. Gusty
northwest winds will blow through the night and Saturday,
decreasing only slightly between midnight and dawn. The windiest
area will be the Snake Basin from Mountain Home eastward where
speeds 20 to 30 mph and gusts 35 to 40 mph will be found. Rain
and snow showers will continue in central and south- central
Idaho Saturday and Saturday night (snow level 6000 feet MSL),
ending Sunday as the upper trough moves into the central and
southern Rockies. Drying Sunday night under a weak upper ridge
ahead of the next deep trough approaching from the Gulf of
Alaska.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The 12Z runs of the
deterministic models have come into much better agreement
through Thursday night. They depict an upper trough moving by
to our north Monday and a second one Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Together, these will keep a chance (generally 15-40%) of
showers, mainly in the north, through Tuesday night. Isolated
thunderstorms are also in the forecast in the north Mon/Tue
aft/eve. Temps will be around 5 degrees below normal. We`ll see
relatively dry northerly flow aloft Wed night into Thu, gently
backing to NW late Thu and continuing into Friday. This will
bring just a slight chance (10-20%) of showers to the northern
higher terrain. Temps in the NBM seemed to be influenced too
much by time-lagged members, and were adjusted cooler to be
more in line with newest GFS and EC MOS guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR. Isolated thunderstorms and scattered
to numerous showers in SE OR and the higher terrain of southwest
Id this aft/eve. Snow levels 6000-7500 ft MSL. Mountains obscured
during showers. Surface winds: W to NW 10-20 kt with gusts to
20-30 kt this aft/eve, decreasing aft 06Z. Winds aloft at 10kft
MSL: N to NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with scattered mid and high clouds, with only a 10%
chance of a shower this aft/eve. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt,
increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt, decreasing after
06Z.

Weekend Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers Saturday over
the mountains, with mostly dry conditions and decreasing clouds
elsewhere. Mostly dry Sunday. Mountains obscured during
showers. Snow levels: 4000-6000 ft MSL Saturday, 6000-7000 ft
MSL Sunday. Surface winds generally W-NW 10-25 kt. Gusts 30-40
kt from KMUO to KJER/KTWF Saturday, then 20-30 kt Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP