Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS64 KBRO 212352
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
652 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

An upper level shortwave trough centered over New Mexico will
advance eastward and pass over the Central Plains tonight and give
way to a ridging pattern for rest of the short term. A low pressure
centered over eastern Texas will continue to move eastward
throughout the period. Currently, much of the CWA is experiencing
cloud cover, though skies are beginning to clear out west. Light
winds tonight and low level moisture could lead to some patchy fog,
especially along the coastal counties into early Friday morning.
Friday morning lows will be in the low 60s across the Brush Country
and Ranchlands and in the mid 60s farther south over the Rio Grande
Valley and along the coast.

Sunny skies on Friday will allow for temperatures to rebound into
the low 90s across the whole region with the exception of mid-to-
upper 80s near the coast. Winds will generally remain light and from
the northeast as an area of high pressure approaches well to the
north. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s for much of the CWA,
low 60s across the RGV and mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The weekend and next week`s forecast looks on track for a dry and
mild period as a progressive steady split flow pattern sets up
across the CONUS.

Surface high pressure builds south Saturday in wake of a eastward
moving mid-level trough providing a surge of lower dew points riding
on northerly winds and providing slight cooling. 850mb Temperature
drop from 16-19C Fri to 13-15C Saturday allowing for highs to top
out in the comfortable upper 70s to lower 80s. Next upstream trough
settles over the Rockies fairly quickly providing a quick return of
southerly winds and warmer temperatures Sunday. A robust pressure
gradient develops as low pressure develops over the front range of
the Rockies and the surface pressure drops below 1000mb. A LLJ of 30-
40kts setting up Sunday into early Monday will produce windy
conditions Sunday afternoon and night with model guidance beginning
to lean towards wind advisory criteria especially over the Lower RGV
where there is a medium to high chances (40-80%) of seeing wind
gusts over 40 mph.

The expected low pressure area over the Rockies deepens and lifts
northeast through the Central Plains sending a cold front through
south Texas Monday. Moisture depth still looks limited to provide
the area with rain with NBM remaining below 10 percent while the GFS
continues on the higher end of the range at 25-35 percent. Due to
the uncertainty the forecast will continue to trend on the lower end
of the PoP spectrum. The frontal passage does however send another
surge of drier and limited cooler conditions for a fair Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs 78-84 and lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Another
quick moving mid-level trough moves into Rockies Thursday turning
our winds back to the southeast and edging our temperatures and
humidity upwards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The latest satellite imagery depicts a gradual clearing from
northwest to southeast across Deep South Texas, with VFR/MVFR
ceilings lingering at HRL and BRO expected to persist over the
next hour or so. Clear skies will likely prevail at MFE through
most of the overnight period, but MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibility
will return after 06-07Z as winds become calm to light and
variable at BRO and MFE. HREF and SREF probabilistic guidance
indicate a potential for IFR/LIFR ceilings, with LAMP guidance
trending toward MVFR/IFR ceilings. For now, opted to prevail
MVFR/IFR ceilings at both HRL and BR0 and included a TEMPO group
for LIFR ceilings at BRO from 09-12Z. Ceilings should quickly
dissipate by mid morning, with VFR prevailing for the remainder of
the period. Otherwise, generally north to northwest winds will
prevail, with speeds increasing to around 10-15 knots by tomorrow
afternoon.

There is a low chance of isolated SHRA skirting the terminals
between 04-07Z, but the potential is too low to warrant a mention
in the TAFs at this time. We`ll continue to monitor trends and
amend as needed.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Tonight through Friday night...Conditions will be mostly
favorable across the Laguna Madre and Gulf Coast through Friday
night. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late this
evening and overnight, mainly for the offshore waters. Late
tonight into early tomorrow, patchy fog is possible primarily for
the Laguna Madre and near shore waters. Friday night winds will
begin to increase slightly, mainly of the offshore waters and low
pressure developing over the Plains begins to tighten the pressure
gradient.

Saturday through Thursday...Weak surface ridge noses into
the northern Gulf providing a light northeast winds. An upstream low
pressure area quickly strengthens over the Rockies and Central
Plains Sunday increasing south winds along the lower Texas coast.
Strong winds and building seas developing Sunday afternoon and peak
Sunday night into early Monday. An associated cold front is shown to
sweep off the Texas coast later Monday with moderate northerly flow
Monday and Tuesday. Winds begin to veer east to southeast for the
middle portions of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             66  90  63  78 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               63  92  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 64  93  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         61  92  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      65  80  65  72 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     64  89  62  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM....59
AVIATION...22-Garcia


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.