000
FXUS61 KBUF 161432
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expansive Canadian based high pressure will provide another day of
dry weather today that will last through the bulk of tonight.
Unsettled weather will then return for Wednesday into Thursday as a
broad area of weakening low pressure passes by to our northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Upper level trough slides east into New England today, while upper
level ridge amplifies over the central and upper Great Lakes. At the
surface, expansive high pressure over Hudson Bay will ridge south
across the lower Great Lakes guaranteeing a dry and pleasant day
with plenty of sunshine and a mainly light breeze. Daytime highs
will range from the lower to mid 50s east of Lake Ontario to the
lower and mid 60s across most areas from the Finger Lakes westward,
although some upper 50s will hang on toward the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline and across the higher terrain of the western
Souther Tier.

Surface ridge axis slides slowly east across eastern NY and western
New England tonight, while highly amplified upper level ridge nudges
over the lower Great Lakes. These features will ensure dry weather
continues for the bulk of the tonight. The exception may be across
far western NY late tonight as the leading edge of a band of showers
associated with a warm front extending well east of an area of low
pressure moving east across the upper Mississippi Valley approaches
from the west. Lows will range from the low to mid 30s across the
North Country to the low and mid 40s across far western NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level ridge axis will move across the eastern Great Lakes
region Wednesday. Surface high pressure will weaken across the
region as surface low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes
region. The nose of a 35kt low level jet will arrive in western NY
Wednesday morning and increasing moisture ahead of a surface warm
front will support strengthening rain showers across western NY.
Showers will move east, however strong subsidence across northern
New England will slow forward progression and keep areas east of
Lake Ontario mainly dry through Wednesday afternoon. The warm sector
will move into far western NY by afternoon and this will introduce
the slight chance for thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. The
better chance for thunderstorms will be ahead of an advancing cold
front across central and eastern Ohio during peak heating time,
however it is possible some rumbles of thunder move into far western
NY into the evening hours. An area of rain showers ahead of an
advancing warm front will move east into the eastern Lake Ontario
region Wednesday night. Surface high pressure over northern New
England will continue to weaken and slow forward progression of
showers. In fact, little to no rain is possible across the North
Country through Wednesday night. The cold front will move into the
region overnight with drier air filtering in from the west. Rainfall
amounts will range from about a half inch across far western NY to a
quarter inch or less east of Lake Ontario Wednesday through
Wednesday night. There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall
across western NY during this time. The risk for any flooding is
limited as convection is forecast to diminish as it moves into
western NY.

The cold front and warm front will slow down and become occluded
Thursday. Drier air will move into western NY where breaks of sun
are possible Thursday. Coverage of showers will diminish through
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large trough will move into the Great Lakes region and bring
another round of unsettled weather and notably, cooler air for the
weekend. Initially, surface low pressure will move into Hudson Bay
Friday through Friday night. An associated cold front will approach
the region and rain showers will likely spread from west to east
across the forecast area Friday. Mostly dry conditions are likely
Friday night before the upper level trough moves overhead Saturday.
Daytime heating with cool air aloft will increase chances for
diurnal rain showers Saturday into Saturday evening. Activity will
likely diminish overnight before an upper level trough axis swings
through the region Sunday. This may produce additional rain showers
however probability is low at this time. Cold air advection through
the weekend will keep temperatures below normal. A large area of
high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region late in the
weekend into Monday resulting in mostly dry conditions across the
eastern Great Lakes region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions and mainly light winds will be the rule
through the entire TAF period as high pressure remains in control
across western and northcentral NY.

Mid and upper level decks will start to thicken and lower across
western NY late tonight ahead of warm front set to move into western
NY on Wednesday. Low VFR CIGS and a few scattered rain showers may
reach KJHW by the tail end of the TAF period.

Looking a bit further ahead, expect flight conditions to deteriorate
Wednesday, especially across western NY, where MVFR CIGS and
some rain showers will be possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday night and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes today. Expect
light breezes with an onshore flow developing on both Lakes by this
afternoon.

Winds turn easterly and elevate later tonight with Small Craft
Advisory conditions possible on Lake Ontario, especially on the
western end ahead of an approaching warm front late tonight and
Wednesday. Winds turn more southerly on both Lakes behind the
warm front by Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA