718
FXUS62 KCAE 012237
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
637 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm conditions will continue through Thursday as
surface high pressure and upper level ridging build back into
the area. Rain chances start to increase Friday as southwesterly
low level flow increases and steadily pushes moisture into the
region. Showers and thunderstorms are then likely over the
weekend as a series of weak disturbances push across the area
and moisture continues to build.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Line of cu associated with coastal sea breeze can be seen
clearly on vis satellite moving inland. This has been enough to
set off a few isolated thunderstorms near the coast where there
is deeper moisture and still a touch of cyclonic flow aloft.
However, dry mid to upper levels is there to great the boundary
as it moves into the southeasternmost midlands and CSRA, so it
will be difficult to see much in the way of shower activity this
evening in the CWA.

Since there is low level moisture in the southeastern half of
the CWA, and winds are expected to be light all night, I think
some fog is in the offing once we get past midnight. I have
introduced patchy fog for many areas in the forecast for late
tonight and early Thursday morning, with areas of fog in the
southeast where the moisture will be a bit deeper on the
oceanward side of the decaying sea breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night: Quiet and dry conditions are
expected for Thursday and Thursday night as ridging aloft builds
and surface high pressure builds just offshore. As a result,
afternoon highs will likely be a few degrees warmer than
Wednesday, with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s.
Seasonably mild overnight lows can also be expected as
temperatures drop into the lower 60s.

Friday and Friday night: The upper ridge begins to flatten while
the axis shifts offshore. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is
forecast to move toward the area and PWAT levels increase during
the day to over 1.5". This combination brings an increasing
chance of afternoon showers and maybe thunderstorms, mainly for
the western portions of the forecast area. CAPE values are
forecast to be on the lower side (100-200 J/kg) and shear values
are forecast to be around 15 kts, so the severe weather threat
is very low. Diurnal temperatures should be similar to Thursday
as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A more active, summer-like pattern looks to be setting up for
the weekend and into the first part of next week. The upper
trough is forecast to begin weakening through the weekend with a
series of shortwaves moving through the Southeast. These
shortwaves bring the chance for daily (mainly) afternoon showers
and thunderstorms into the early part of next week. Low-level
flow is expected to become southwest, bringing additional
moisture to the region. As a result, the risk for stronger
storms increases for each afternoon as the instability gradually
increases each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR through early tonight. Slightly drier low level air in
place today across much of the forecast area (FA), with
lower dewpoints noted late this afternoon at DNL/AGS. SCT
diurnal Cu is expected to dissipate this evening, leaving clear
skies and very light winds overnight, with weak surface high
pressure over the area. Some radiation fog, and possibly
stratus, expected to develop late tonight. With very little
wind, think fog and VSBYs will be more of an issue than CIGs.
Guidance generally indicates best potential over southern and
eastern areas, favoring OGB and the Coastal Plain, with IFR to
LIFR potential. Think less potential at DNL/AGS with the drier
low level air, though will indicate MVFR VSBYs at AGS due to the
localized fog prone nature of the site.

After early morning restrictions dissipate, expect VFR conditions
Thursday with a relatively dry atmosphere and an upper ridge
overhead.  Diurnal Cu expected, with any bases above VFR level.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Late night/early morning fog and stratus
possible through the period. Increased potential for showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$