National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KCRP 160338
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1038 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

An upper level disturbance will exit the southern Rockies and move
across the southern Plains during the period. The bulk of the
associated upper forcing will remain north of the CWA
(GFS/EMCWF/NAM deterministic output). In response to the upper
system, onshore flow will persist over the region. Although PWAT
values will remain near/slightly above normal, strong CIN values
(deterministic NAM) will preclude surface-based convection during
the period. Will maintain the current Wind Advisory and allow it
to expire at 02z Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Key Message:

▶  Cold front This weekend with a medium chance (30-50%) of showers
and thunderstorms

The overall flow aloft will be out of the southwest at the start of
the long term period, accompanied by a mid-level high over the Gulf
and a quasi-stationary surface boundary north of our CWA. The flow
then becomes zonal this weekend following a mid-level disturbance
and an attendant front.

Rain and storm chances will be low (20-30%) across much of the
region Wednesday evening through Thursday in response to a mid-level
shortwave as it slides over the region. Best chances will be out
west along the Rio Grande Plains. FROPA is progged for sometime
Saturday night/Sunday morning. As the aforementioned front comes
through there`s a medium chance (40-50%) for showers and
thunderstorms out west with a low chance (25-35%) over the rest of
the CWA. However, operational models disagree on timing so will
monitor changes and update forecast as necessary.

Afternoon temperatures start out in the 80s to 90s across the region
but will dip to the 70s to 80s this weekend after the front. Lows
ahead of the front will range in the low to mid 70s then will range
in the 60s behind the front

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR conditions are expected tonight across all sites as winds
decrease to under 20 knots. All sites except for VCT should
improve to VFR tomorrow between 16-20z while VCT remains MVFR
throughout the day with due to low ceilings. Winds will increase
once again tomorrow, however, they should remain at or below 25
knots. MVFR conditions could creep back in to play at some sites
towards the end of this forecast cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

In response to an upper level disturbance expected to move across
the southern Plains through Tuesday, expect moderate to strong
onshore flow over the Waters tonight/Tuesday morning. Will
maintain the current Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the coastal
waters until 15z Tuesday for the coastal waters. Yet, decided to
end the SCA over the bays at 02z when considering HREF
probability of >20kt 10-meter wind. Weak to moderate onshore flow
is expected through the end of the week ahead of our next front.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return over the weekend as a cold
front approaches. This front is expected to move off shore by
Sunday with moderate northeast winds in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  72  87  73 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          83  70  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            96  74  94  75 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             88  71  92  72 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          81  72  82  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           95  73  92  74 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        85  72  90  73 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  72  82  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...JCP/84