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000
FXUS64 KCRP 191117
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
617 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

▶ Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Saturday
▶ Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues into the weekend

We`ve seen a few isolated showers and thunderstorms track across our
northern counties overnight as a shortwave exits the region. At
the surface, winds have gone light and variable. As a result,
patchy fog is beginning to develop with visibilities generally
ranging from 4-6 miles across the Coastal Plains and Victoria
Crossroads.

As we head through the day, a cold front will move south across the
state, eventually stalling just to the north of the CWA. This
boundary will linger across the central part of the state through
mid day Saturday before it restarts its southern progression.
Meanwhile, another shortwave will eject out of Mexico this evening
within the quasi-zonal flow aloft. Just as we saw yesterday,
several CAMs are picking up on some convective activity crossing
the Rio Grande and heading into the Brush Country late this
evening. For now, have a 20-30% chance of showers and
thunderstorms through late tonight.

The aforementioned cold front will begin to move south on
Saturday. Our chances for showers and thunderstorms will ramp up
as the boundary inches closer. We are now carrying a 30-50% chance
across our northern tier of counties through Saturday evening.
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday
afternoon as instability increases through the day. Forecast
soundings reveal MLCAPE nearing 2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear around
40 knots. Therefore, SPC has included our northern tier of
counties within a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms tomorrow.
Rain chances continue to increase as we head into the long term
forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Key Messages:

-Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms Saturday evening into Sunday
morning

-Marginal Risk for Severe Weather Saturday night into Sunday morning

A mid-level disturbance will move into the area Saturday that will
send a boundary through the area Saturday evening into Sunday
morning. This will combine with moderate instability ahead of the
boundary (1500-2000 J/kg) and above normal PWAT values for this time
of year (1.7-1.9 inches). Models depict 0-6km bulk shear around 30-
40 knots which would be a supportive environment for storms to be
sustained. These factors will allow for convection to likely develop
and be scattered to numerous in coverage. There is a low chance that
these storms could become severe in nature. Due to this SPC
included the northern portions of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for
Saturday into Sunday morning. After the passage of this boundary
cooler temperatures will be expected into early next week with
high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This will unfortunately
be short lived, as temperatures return to the mid 80s to lower 90s
by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

As of writing, VFR conditions are currently in place everywhere
but VCT as MVFR has settled in. However, ceilings are likely to
bounce between VFR and MVFR over the next few hours. Southeasterly
winds will begin to increase through the morning with gusts
around 20-25 knots expected through the afternoon. Another round
of low level stratus is likely tonight with MVFR returning by
03-06Z. IFR cigs are also possible, generally at ALI/VCT after
09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will continue as we head into the
weekend. Rain chances will increase through the day Saturday as a
cold front nears the region. By Saturday night, chances for
showers and storms will jump up to 50-60% over the waters. The
cold front will move offshore early Sunday morning with northeast
winds increasing to 20-25 knots by Sunday afternoon. There is
currently a high chance that Small Craft Advisories will be issued
for Sunday. Conditions are expected to improve on Monday as high
pressure builds into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Weak to
moderate flow is expected through the remainder of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  72  86  64 /  20  10  20  50
Victoria          85  70  84  60 /  20  10  40  60
Laredo            95  72  91  64 /  10  10  30  60
Alice             91  71  88  63 /  20  10  30  50
Rockport          84  73  83  64 /  20  10  20  60
Cotulla           91  71  88  62 /  10  20  50  70
Kingsville        90  72  87  63 /  20  10  20  50
Navy Corpus       83  73  82  65 /  10  10  10  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TC/95