457
FXUS64 KCRP 060011
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
711 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Key Messages:

- Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon/early this evening.
_ Heat indices exceeding 100 Monday for the Rio Grande Plains and the
  Brush Country.

Boundary left over from overnight convection continues to sag into
the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush Country late this afternoon.
Two cells of note are pushing into northern Webb, LaSalle, and
McMullen counties. By the looks of satellite and radar, earlier
convection from Live Oak to Calhoun counties has worked over the
atmosphere enough, and with the anvil blow off over those
counties, the chances are low (10-20%) that convection gets going
again. Otherwise, the thunderstorms will continue until about 00z.
The convection should diminish with the dry air moving in behind
the boundary, and the loss of heating going into the evening.

With the drier air, although the sfc dewpoints will be in the mid
70s, the expectation will be that the Brush Country and Rio Grande
plains will have sunny to partly cloudy skies by the afternoon, and
continue partly to mostly cloudy overnight. With the sunshine during
the afternoon, temperatures in the Rio Grande Valley will approach
100F, but with the lower to mid 70s dewpoints, will expect Heat
Indices that will reach close to 105F. This is likely to begin our
week of 100+ heat indices. To the east, in the Coastal Plains and
Victoria Crossroads, the sky will be partly to mostly cloudy during
the day and night. The heat indices will be near 100 on Monday for
those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Key Messages:

- There is a moderate to high chance of heat index values 100
  degrees or higher Tuesday through Thursday.

- A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return
  temperatures to near normal for this time of year.

Not much of a change from the inherited Extended forecast package.
The main headlines for this week are the very warm temperatures
through Thursday, followed by a frontal passage late week leading to
cooler conditions over the weekend.

A persistent onshore flow will continue to drag moisture into the
region, which combined with the very warm temperatures could lead to
a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts on the population,
especially across portions of the Brush Country, Rio Grande Plains
and southern Coastal Plains. Heat index values of 110-114 degrees
will be possible during the afternoon hours Tuesday through
Thursday. Therefore, Heat Advisories may be needed in following
forecast packages. If spending time outside this week, please take
this under consideration. Make sure to keep yourself hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat and wear light and loose fitting
clothes.

By the end of the week conditions will change in response to a
frontal passage, which is progged to move across the area sometime
Thursday night. Cooler temperatures are then in store Friday through
the weekend. Highs will fall into the mid 80s to low 90s range, with
overnight lows in the low 60s to near 70. A few showers and
thunderstorms may accompany this boundary, but much drier conditions
are expected in its wake. Onshore flow resumes late in the weekend
as surface high pressure drifts eastward. Moisture return is
expected to follow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Very low confidence forecast. The models insist that a low deck
moves into the region and cover all the TAF sites. However,
looking at the satellite a large clearing has formed in the wake
of the thunderstorms that have moved through ALI and is about to
move through CRP. VCT looks like it would be cloudy most of the
night. CRP and ALI, if the clearing doesn`t happen, and the models
say that it won`t will get MVFR/IFR CIGs overnight(VCT as well).
COT and LRD are the unknown. However, think that the moisture and
clouds will work their way west again. Considering the hazy look
on the satellite west of the Rio Grande, that might be the case.
In which case, the there will be MVFR CIGs by 12z/Mon at LRD and
COT which would hang around until 16z, when all of the forecast
area would start to lift and the clouds break up for the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue
through Thursday, with periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution
conditions. Winds will back more to the northeast Friday into
Saturday with the passage of a frontal boundary. There is a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast remains dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    76  89  76  90 /  70   0   0   0
Victoria          73  88  75  90 /  30   0   0   0
Laredo            76  97  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             74  92  74  95 /  90   0   0   0
Rockport          76  85  77  85 /  50   0   0   0
Cotulla           76  95  75 100 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        75  90  75  94 /  90   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       77  86  78  89 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...JSL/86