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000
FNUS71 KCTP 221126
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for MCWMA rx fire...Pa game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
726 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 22.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Chilly start today, then sunny and warmer with minRH forecast
around 20% this afternoon. MinRH values have been adjusted to the
lower end of the forecast range based on a strong dewpoint and
deep mixing signal.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 59.
Min Humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......7200 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................10 early in the morning increasing to 61
                    in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  40  45  48  51  54  55  58  58  59  59
RH................  64  51  44  37  32  29  25  25  23  22
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT Wind Gust...  8   10  10  14  14  14  14  14  14  13
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.7 1.5 3.8 5.1 5.7 6.3 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.1
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp Wind Spd...  9   10  15  16  17  17  17  17  17  16
LVORI.............  2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  10  50  50  50  59  59  59  61  61  61
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 36.
Max Humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....North 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east 5mph
                    late in the evening.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 10.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   9   14  18
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  58  57  51  49  47  45  44  42  41  40  38  37
RH................  23  25  34  40  42  45  47  50  52  55  62  64
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   5   3   3   2   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  7   4           2   2
Mix Hgt (kft).....  6.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   N   N   N   NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp Wind Spd...  15  8   7   6   6   5   5   6   5   5   5   6
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
ADI...............  10  10  10  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Haines Index......  6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 66.
Min Humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph increasing to southwest 15
                    to 25 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 66 in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  23  27  32  33  33  34  35  36  37  43  49  54
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  37  38  44  47  52  58  60  62  64  64  64  65
RH................  64  64  57  56  48  39  36  33  30  31  31  31
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  2   2   2   4   6   7   9   10  11  12  12  13
20 FT Wind Gust...              5   7   11  13  14  16  17  18  18
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 2.6 4.0 4.6 5.2 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp Wind Spd...  5   6   5   8   10  15  16  17  18  20  20  21
LVORI.............  3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  4   4   4   41  41  41  60  60  60  66  66  66
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Steinbugl
Requested by...Tyler Hudock
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411694.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tyhudock@pa.gov