Text Products for FWS Issued by DDC

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions: 1

000
FNUS73 KDDC 112023
FWSDDC

Spot Forecast for Ellis co fire...Kansas Forest Service
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
323 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1600 CDT on April 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (620) 225-6514, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Latest RAP surface analysis reveals a ~994-mb low pressure system
is centered over the Ohio Valley ahead of an upper level longwave
trough extending from the northern Midwest southward into the Gulf
of Mexico. Cyclonic flow around the surface trough is resulting in
north-northwest winds reaching all the way into the central
plains, sustained in the 25-30 mph range with gusts of 35-40 mph.
Short range guidance indicates the surface low will continue to
pull farther away, helping to relax the pressure gradient over
west-central KS. This along with weakening boundary layer mixing
over the next few hours will support a gradual weakening of winds
through the afternoon and evening, with winds reaching the 5-10
mph range by sunset. Overnight, winds will remain light and
variable.

Daytime Friday, an upper level ridge will eject onto the High
Plains as the next significant trough begins to impinge on the
northern west coast. At the surface, a lee cyclone will take shape
across eastern MT/WY/CO, which will flip winds across our area to
southeasterly in the 10-20 mph range, and these will hold
steadfast through the day Friday and into the overnight period.
Regarding minimum relative humidity Friday, afternoon temperatures
will increase into the upper 70s, and combine with dewpoints
climbing from the mid 20s to the mid 30s by mid-afternoon to
support minimum relative humidity in 20-25% range.

Saturday morning, winds will begin to trend southwesterly as the
surface trough advances eastward into the northern plains. As this
happens, the pressure gradient across our area will tighten,
resulting in southwesterly winds increasing into the 15-25 mph
range with gusts of 30-35 mph. These downsloping winds will also
contribute to a much warmer afternoon Saturday, with highs
reaching the upper 80s/near 90. This along with dewpoint
temperatures in the upper 30s will foster minimum relative
humidity in the 15-20% range.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 14 to 18 mph decreasing to 6 to
                    8 mph early in the evening, then becoming light
                    late in the evening becoming northeast around 5
                    mph late in the evening becoming light becoming
                    east around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 28 mph becoming north 6 to 13
                    mph late in the evening, then shifting to the
                    northeast around 9 mph overnight shifting to
                    the east after 3 am.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........38     9      3      2      4      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............65     59     49     45     41     38
RH..............15     22     31     35     41     44
20 ft wind......NW 18  NW 8   N 3    N 5    NE 5   E 5
20 ft wind gust.26            5
Mix hgt (ft)....8600   5500   300    BLW100 300    300
Transport wind..NW 28  NW 20  N 7    N 7    NE 9   E 9
Haines index....5      5      6      6      6      5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    south 14 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 17 mph shifting to the south 14
                    to 21 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   7 AM   9 AM   11 AM
Sky (%).........4      6      4      4      2      1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............35     40     52     62     70     75
RH..............49     42     32     24     22     22
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 7   SE 10  SE 14  S 15   S 15
20 ft wind gust.              12     18     21     21
Mix hgt (ft)....200    300    1000   3400   5500   6300
Transport wind..E 10   SE 14  SE 20  S 20   S 17   S 14
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4      4

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM
Sky (%).........2      4      3      5      9      17
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............74     68     58     55     53     51
RH..............24     34     51     59     66     71
20 ft wind......S 14   SE 10  SE 13  SE 13  S 13   S 12
20 ft wind gust.20     12     14     16     14
Mix hgt (ft)....5500   3100   300    BLW100 300    300
Transport wind..S 16   S 21   SE 24  SE 25  S 24   S 22
Haines index....4      4      5      6      6      6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 14 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 31 mph shifting to the southwest 23
                    to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      1 AM   3 AM   5 AM   7 AM   9 AM   11 AM
Sky (%).........46     44     53     35     20     8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............51     55     66     76     82     86
RH..............66     53     36     25     21     18
20 ft wind......S 14   S 16   SW 18  SW 20  SW 21  SW 21
20 ft wind gust.15     22     25     28     29     29
Mix hgt (ft)....300    200    300    900    4400   8500
Transport wind..S 24   S 31   SW 36  SW 28  SW 23  SW 24
Haines index....6      6      6      6      6      6

$$
Forecaster...SPRINGER
Requested by...Madison Reed FIRB(T)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2410402.0/DDC
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Mwreed@ksu.edu
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
