Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 160701
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
301 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and mild today as southwest winds gust around 35 mph.

- There is also a chance of showers as a cold front moves through
  the region; around noon toward the Tri Cities, mid to late
  afternoon toward metro Detroit.

- A surge of cold air follows tonight and Sunday which is then
  reinforced Monday through Thursday next week, supporting
  temperatures around or slightly below normal. Chance of
  flurries/light snow showers at times as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest water vapory shows large mid-upper level circulation/trough
centered over northern Ontario, with a good deal of upper level
PV/energy diving southeast from Central Canada. Trough axis will
moving through the Western Great Lakes today, and there may be just
enough moisture/850-700 MB Theta-e ridging, especially along a ADG-
PHN line and points south to activate the baroclinic zone/FGEN this
afternoon as large scale ascent arrives. Still looking at breezy
southwest winds today ahead of the cold front passage, with up to 40
knots of flow at 850 MB conducive for gusts 30-35 mph during the
day. Timing of clouds and possible showers will determine maxes, as
there is some variability indicated amongst the forecasted 850 MB
temps at 21z, ranging from -1 C to ~2 C far southeast. Will continue
to highlight maxes mostly in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

As the large scale troughs settles over the Great Lakes region
during the rest of the weekend, and reaches the Gulf Coast States by
Monday, noticeably colder air will filter in, as 850 MB temps lower
into the negative lower teens. A clipper system tracking through on
Tuesday will lead to another cold shot for mid week, with 850 MB
temps settling into the negative mid teens.

The cold cyclonic flow will be conducive for periods of lake
enhanced light snow shower/flurry activity, with more broad upper
level support on Tuesday with the surface low tracking through lower
Michigan. Still, some light snow shower activity Sunday
evening/night looks likely with 700 MB cold pool (-20 C) and 500 MB
trough axis tracking through.

&&

.MARINE...

A strengthening low pressure system tracks out of central Canada and
across Ontario today. The low will pull a cold front down through
the Great Lakes this afternoon bringing increasing winds and waves
through the weekend and into next week. Winds will increase this
morning out of the southwest ahead of the first front with winds
reaching 25 to 30 knots. Winds turn more westerly tonight and
northwesterly on Sunday with gusts to around 25 knots behind the
front with cold advection resulting in increasing wave heights.
These conditions will persist across portions of the nearshore areas
Sunday and Monday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all
nearshore zones for the 25+ knot southwest winds today and
additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday and
Monday for waves.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

AVIATION...

Southerly moist flow off Lake Erie is supporting IFR/MVFR stratus
across the southern metro terminals that will gradually draw east of
these terminals between 08Z and 10Z. High pressure will exit east of
the area during the early morning as a strong cold front approaches
the region from the northwest. This front will advance into Lower Mi
on Saturday. Prefrontal southwest winds will dramatically increase
during the morning. Model soundings suggest boundary layer growth
through diurnal mixing will result in southwest wind gusts up to or
in excess of 30 knots by Saturday afternoon. Moisture advection,
beginning prior to daybreak Saturday and into Saturday afternoon will
mainly be in the mid levels, so ceilings heights will be VFR. The
front will slowly push across the area Saturday afternoon and will
provide a chance for a brief interval of showers.

For DTW...Lake Erie moisture will support MVFR/IFR ceilings through
around 09Z. The wind direction is then forecast to veer slightly
from southwest to westerly late Saturday afternoon. With gusts
expected to remain over 25 knots, this could pose the chance for
crosswind concerns. Light showers may also accompany the front in the
afternoon. The chances look low so will refrain from mentioning in
the TAFs attm.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet early this morning. Low
  after 10Z.

* Low for crosswind thresholds being exceeded Saturday afternoon.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......DK
AVIATION.....SC


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