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000
FXUS63 KEAX 240740
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
240 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heads Up: Multiple rounds of thunderstorms beginning Thursday,
  continuing through Sunday.

- Severe thunderstorm chances Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

- Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding with Saturday
  Evening into Sunday system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

06Z surface analysis reveals the surface ridge continues to develop
across the Northern Plains early this morning. This trend will
continue as mid-level ridging continues to evolve across the Rockies
through today. What does that mean for us? Well, today is the last
quiet, nice day, before we enter an active period marked by
thunderstorms and rainfall Thursday through Sunday. With light north
and finally east-southeast winds today, temperatures will remain
seasonable, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tonight, with the mid-level ridge shifting east, influenced by the
eastward dig of an H500 trough along the West Coast, broadscale
forcing for ascent will develop across the Southern Plains and
spreading northward through Thursday morning. Tapped into decent
Gulf Moisture, rain and showers are expected to develop and spread
northward across the region through Thursday morning. Forecast
soundings suggest some skinny elevated instability could develop
through the mid to late morning, resulting in rumbles of thunder.

Through Thursday, as the H500 trough pivots over the Four Corners,
anticipate ample recovery across the western High Plains of
KS/TXPH/OKPH. With Mid-60s dew points developing from central Kansas
into Oklahoma, instability will surge through the afternoon, with an
axis of 1500 to 2500 J/Kg of SBCAPE. Mid-range guidance has been in
decent agreement with the surface low center lifting out of Colorado
into northwestern Kansas through the late afternoon. With a decent
dryline positioned from near Goodland KS and South toward Guymon OK,
expect convection to develop from the triple point in
northwestern Kansas and southward as the cold front advances
into western Kansas through the late afternoon and evening. For
more details check out the latest SWODY2 from SPC and
discussions from the KS, TX, and OK WFOs. For our area, warm
sector convection will likely be ongoing through the day across
far eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with activity spreading
east through the evening and overnight into Friday. A few
strong storms may exist during this period, but no widespread
severe weather for our area is expected at this time.

Friday, as mentioned yesterday, lingering showers/convective
activity through the morning would have some limited influence on
recovery through midday to the afternoon. The Aforementioned mid-
level short wave is expected to lift east-northeast across central
Nebraska by midday, maintaining a negative tilt, with the surface
low center nearby. Most guidance has ample recovery through the
early afternoon, with daytime heating and southerly flow combining
for a ribbon of 2000 J/Kg SBCAPE extending from eastern Oklahoma
across eastern Kansas into northwestern MO. The focus for severe
convective development will be along this axis, but closer to the
surface low in southeast Nebraska, northeastern Kansas, and
northwestern Missouri where the better dynamics will be. Primarily,
latest solutions from mid-range guidance suggests the cold front
will overtake the dryline late in the afternoon, with convection
firing from southwestern Iowa into northwestern Missouri and south
along the boundary as it advances eastward. There is one big issue
of note, and I made note of it yesterday. With such an
aggressive negative tilt to the trough, southwesterly flow
through the lower levels will more than likely result in a
decent EML, and forecast soundings confirm this. Now, the front
will provide some assist in breaking the capping inversion, but
convection may be delayed until later in the afternoon to the
early evening because of this. The influence of the EML will
probably be felt the further south down the front one travels.
The effects are less of an issue in far northeastern Kansas and
northwestern Missouri, where initial convection is most likely.
All modes of severe weather will be possible given deep layer
shear supporting organization. Shear orientation also suggests
initial convection to be single cell, with a brief period of
backing surface winds in northwest Missouri a concern. Large
hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado or two are possible
with the strongest updrafts Friday afternoon and evening.
Convection will steadily exit east overnight through Saturday
morning.

Saturday, there will be a lull in activity through the morning to
midday. Through sunrise, out west, another churning H500 trough
crossing the Rockies will emerge on the western High Plains through
the day. Ahead of this system, ample return flow from the Gulf will
pool across the Plains, with broadscale ascent through the warm
sector driving scattered convection through the day from Oklahoma
and Arkansas and north. As the surface low lifts east into western
Kansas, once again, organized convection will develop along the
intersection of the cold front and the dryline, as well as along the
warm front across central Kansas through the afternoon and evening.
The big concern I have for our area late Saturday into early Sunday
will be excessive and continuous moderate to heavy rainfall. With
pwats pushing 1.50 to 2.00 inches and the warm front extended from
eastern Kansas to northeastern Missouri, training thunderstorms are
going to be a big concern overnight. The track of greatest rainfall
still looks to be across northern into northeastern Missouri, but
thunderstorms will result in locally heavy rainfall and the
increased risk of rises on area streams and rivers and flash
flooding. Even with the moderate drought for much of the area, the
flooding concern exists. Additionally, a few severe storms remain
possible, with hail and wind the primary concerns at this time.
We`ll need to watch any storms that anchor to the warm front given
the enhancement of shear brought on by the boundary.

Thunderstorms will continue through Sunday across the area, with
rainfall amounts from Saturday night to Sunday morning totaling
around 2 to 3 inches in many locations, with locally higher
amounts possible. Long range guidance continues to suggest
modest recovery of the airmass through midday ahead of the
northeast churn of the upper short wave over Iowa. In response,
a modest instability axis will develop through central Missouri,
with convective development expected along the trailing cold
front through the afternoon. This will bring us our last window
of potential strong to severe convection for the weekend, with
focus from central into eastern Missouri. Hail and wind will be
the primary concerns, but again, farther north, nearer the more
favorable shear environment, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

Precipitation should end to the east Sunday night. By the end of the
weekend, the overall rainfall total from Thursday to Sunday could be
upwards of 4 to 6 inches of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Light
winds will persist, generally out of the north this morning,
before shifting to the east and southeast through late morning.
Late in the period, increasing BKN high ceilings will develop.
After 03Z, -SHRA chances will develop, but confidence in
coverage and timing is low at this time for area terminals.
Therefore, will hold off any mention at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Kurtz