855
FXUS63 KEAX 121712
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to move into the area Sunday
afternoon and continue through Monday. Rainfall amounts as high as
high as 2 inches will be possible leading to minor flooding concerns.

-Dry weather and near normal temperatures expected for the middle of
next week.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second half
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Weather has stayed quiet for the most part overnight. Will gradually
see cloud cover moving in this morning ahead of a shortwave currently
situated over the Rockies. As we head into the day, expect this
system to slowly push east into the day on Sunday. Ahead of its
arrival, warm air advection will aid in the development of shower
and thunderstorms activity starting Sunday afternoon. Additionally,
this will help keep temperatures above average with highs this
afternoon reaching into the low 80s across most of the forecast
area.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue into the
overnight hours Sunday night into Monday morning as the wave
continues to shift east. This shortwave will be very slow moving,
and will finally be centered over the area by Monday evening.
Rainfall and thunderstorms are expected to continue through this
time, eventually tapering off from west to east after sunset Monday.
Rainfall amounts through this period are expected to range from 1-2
inches. This could lead to additional minor river flooding. Severe
weather is not expected as CAPE and shear profiles look poor. As far
as temperatures go, expect a cooler day on Monday with highs in the
upper 60s to low 60s.

The middle of next week is looking dry as very brief ridging returns
to the forecast area and temperatures return to the mid to upper 70s
(near normal for mid May). This dry period will be short lived with
our attention turning to another shortwave as early as Wednesday
night. The shortwave tracks east through the day Thursday into
Friday bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall is expected to exit the area by Friday night with mostly
dry conditions expected for next weekend. Above normal highs look to
return as well with 80s expected for Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Initial VFR conditions may trend MVFR/IFR by sunrise Monday.
Scattered showers will develop near terminal space by late afternoon
and early evening, with more widespread coverage after midnight.
Additionally a few thunderstorms will be possible in the more robust
activity overnight into Monday morning. Cigs may go lower than
current forecast, but trending lower as confidence increases.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Blair