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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 111110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
510 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

After a quiet day today, breezy and warm conditions return by the
weekend as we remain very dry. A passing trough is expected to
bring strong winds for Monday with critical fire danger across the
area and possible blowing dust. Temperatures cool slightly behind
that system with breezy winds into the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Typical spring-time weather is expected for the period. Today will
be probably the most pleasant day involving slightly above normal
temperatures and fairly light winds. An upper ridge moves over the
region for a short time tonight, followed by southwesterly flow
aloft through the weekend. Temperatures climb to well above normal
on Friday as breezy southerly winds develop. El Paso will come
close to a daily record high (90F; 45% chance of reaching that
value) on Friday. NBM 75th percentile is 91 which seems to do
pretty well with these early season warm-ups. Slightly cooler
temperatures for Saturday behind a weak shortwave. Breezy winds
(generally 15-25 mph) are expected Friday-Sunday, shifting
southwesterly under mostly clear skies.

A bowling ball of an upper low reaches the Pacific coast on
Saturday, digging to the southeast into AZ by Monday. This closed
low will scoot across NM on Monday (exact timing is uncertain),
creating excellent lee troughing along the southern High Plains.
GEFS mean shows a very strong lee cyclone in NE CO of about 985mb
at 0z on Tuesday with a tight and large pressure gradient across
our area Monday PM. This synoptic pattern is ideal for a very
windy day, moreso in eastern areas since the trough looks to swing
through a bit later in the day. Wind grids were bumped up
slightly from NBM to near the 75th percentile (mostly 30-40 mph
sustained and gusts to 50 mph).

No wind products will be posted at this time, but confidence is
relatively high for a Day 5 forecast. I would expect us to issue
High Wind Watches by Saturday if this trend holds. With the W-SW
wind direction, blowing dust may be a concern as well Monday PM
downwind of dust sources, including the El Paso area. No precip
is expected as the low`s center passes through northern NM or
thereabouts. A Pacific cold front is modeled to exit the CWA
Monday evening. Zonal/SW flow then takes over into the middle of
next week, keeping winds breezy, temperatures warm, and skies
mostly clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Generally
light winds expected, shifting S-SE this afternoon with
occasional gusts in the teens. Mainly SKC continues, becoming
FEW250 later in the period on the backside of a ridge.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Fire weather concerns will be on the increase into early next
week. Very dry conditions are expected throughout the period with
min RHs near or below critical levels each afternoon. For today,
afternoon highs will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday with
generally light S winds expected. Breezy winds (~15 mph at 20
feet) develop for Friday, resulting in elevated to near critical
fire danger in northern and western areas. Winds increase a bit
more for the weekend (20-ft winds closer to 20 mph) with continued
elevated-near critical conditions. Winds shift southwesterly this
weekend as the upper ridge translates to the east and deep SW
flow takes over on the backside. ERCs will be rising due to the
warmer conditions, breezy winds, and continued dry pattern.

The big day for fire weather looks to be Monday as a deep upper
trough swings through NM, producing a tight and large pressure
gradient across the CWA. Most if not all of the moisture stays to
our north, keeping us dry. 20-ft W-SW winds of 25-30 mph are
forecast with higher speeds in the Sacs as RHs remain near 10% or
below in the lowlands, slightly higher in the mountains. RFTIs of
around 7 are likely in the lowlands, resulting in critical and
possibly extreme fire weather. Fire Weather Watches may be posted
by the weekend if trends hold. FWZ 110 should see better
conditions due to wetter fuels and relatively high surface
moisture.

Min RHs range from 7-15% through the period with isolated higher
values in the mountains. Vent rates will be good to very good
today, then mostly excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  83  57  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            76  50  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               82  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               78  48  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               55  39  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    77  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              72  48  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   81  47  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                81  48  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       81  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                81  45  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             83  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               75  52  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   83  53  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             80  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           80  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            78  47  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    81  45  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 81  49  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                77  48  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  69  42  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                66  42  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 65  40  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  71  44  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                76  47  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                77  44  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             73  43  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   75  44  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    80  48  84  46 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               76  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  74  47  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   81  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  80  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           81  49  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               77  51  76  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson