National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KEPZ 102048
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
248 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

We will have typical Spring weather for the next week. Thursday`s
highs will be near seasonal averages and then for Friday
through Sunday high temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above
average. We will see breezy to windy conditions each afternoon
for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Our windiest day of the forecast
looks to be next Monday, when we could see very windy conditions.
As is typical for April, we will stay dry through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

We have moved into a typical April weather pattern, we will be
warm and very dry with little to no chance for rain through at
least the middle of next week. An upper level ridge will begin to
build across the region on Thursday to help keep our skies clear
and continue to warm our temperatures to near average on Thursday
and well above average on Friday.

For Saturday and Sunday, we will have a dry southwest flow aloft
which will continue our warm temperatures and keep our breezy to
windy afternoons going. Then on Monday an approaching upper level
storm system will give us windy to very windy conditions.
Probabilistic forecasts show 30 to 50% chance of sustained winds
of 30 mph in the lowlands and 40 to 60% chance of sustained winds
of 30 mph in area mountains. For the middle of next week, the dry,
warm and breezy weather will continue, April is definitely here.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

We will see VFR conditions this afternoon and tonight. Our
ceilings will remain unlimited through at least Thursday
afternoon. Our winds are generally light and variable, but they
will be a little gusty this afternoon. Wind gusts will stay below
20 knots. The gusty winds will drop off around sunset and our
winds tonight will again be light and variable. We will be near
record highs on Friday. Probabilistic forecasts shows that we
have a 30% chance for a record high at Silver City, a 20% chance
in Deming, a 25% chance in Alamogordo, and a nearly 50% for a
record high in El Paso. The warm temperatures will help mix down
some of the stronger winds aloft so we will see breezy winds
conditions on Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

We will have quiet fire weather condition on Thursday, but our min
RH`s will be very low, single digits in the lowlands and in the
teens in area mountains. These very low min RH`s will continue on
Friday through Monday and we will see breezy to windy conditions
each afternoon. We will be near critical fire weather conditions
on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and we have a good chance to see
critical fire weather conditions next Monday. No chance for rain
through the middle of next week. Vent rates will range from very
good to excellent the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  49  83  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            43  76  50  81 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               46  83  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               41  78  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               32  54  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    45  77  49  82 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              42  72  48  75 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   43  80  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                41  80  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       49  81  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                38  80  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             41  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               43  74  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   44  83  52  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             43  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           48  79  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            40  78  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    40  81  44  86 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                40  77  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  35  69  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                35  66  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 34  65  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  38  71  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                43  76  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                39  77  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             35  73  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   40  75  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    41  80  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               42  76  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  43  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   42  81  46  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  42  80  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           44  80  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               46  77  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice