000
FNUS74 KEPZ 241749
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for 16 Springs Rx...USDA Fores Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1149 AM MDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 MDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated conditions today with warm temperatures and dry air area
wide. Min RH around 14%. Southwest winds increasing to 10 to 12
mph leading to Very Good smoke ventilation this afternoon.
Critical to extreme fire weather conditions expected on Thursday,
perhaps the most severe of this season so far. Critical RH
combined with west-southwest winds of 30 to 35 mph with gusts 50
to 55mph in the afternoon hours. Winds will settle down Thursday
night but increase again Friday and especially Saturday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (69000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (168100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........61     61     78
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............68     70     69
RH..............17     15     14
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 12  SW 12
20 ft wind gust.23     23     24
Mix hgt (ft)....8600   8500   8500
Transport wind..SW 21  SW 22  SW 22
Haines index....4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..166    168    168
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (110800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (9100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........92     92     75     63     63     56
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............65     59     55     53     52     51
RH..............15     19     21     23     25     26
20 ft wind......SW 11  SW 11  SW 7   SW 9   SW 9   W 13
20 ft wind gust.21     21     15     20     20     29
Mix hgt (ft)....5800   5800   700    700    600    600
Transport wind..SW 20  SW 20  SW 18  SW 18  W 23   W 23
Haines index....3      4      5      5      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..111    111    9      9      11     11
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
                    around 46 mph increasing to southwest 31 to 34
                    mph with gusts to around 55 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 35 mph becoming southwest and
                    increasing to 50 to 52 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (102000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (384100 knot-ft) in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........52        36        9         5
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............51        57        63        64
RH..............27        21        16        15
20 FT wind......W 20G41   SW 25G46  SW 31G53  SW 34G55
Mix hgt (ft)....2800      2800      8400      10300
Transport wind..W 35      W 35      SW 50     SW 52
Haines index....4         3         3         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..102       102       384       446
Ventrate Cat....VYGD      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Matthew Barone
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412306.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Matthew.barone@usda.gov