791
FXUS64 KEWX 180530
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1230 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Have expanded showers and thunderstorms farther to the east across
the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains to Winter Garden areas.
Sounding data indicates a potential for a few strong to severe
storms and these have been realized. Expect activity to dissipate
shortly after sunset with loss of heating and passage of upper level
low.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

The primary mid-level trough axis is in the process of advancing
through the region today. The rain across our southern zones this
morning has mainly shifted farther to the south into the CRP and HGX
CWAs. However, our southern areas may still see a shower or storm
clip the area into and through the afternoon. As a northwesterly
flow aloft establishes in wake of the trough axis, we could see some
isolated high-based convection develop from this afternoon through
early this evening from just across the border into our Southern
Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plain counties. This convection is
capable of gusty winds given the dry low-levels and the modeled
inverted "V" soundings. Couldn`t rule out some small hail as well
but highest probabilities for hail exist farther south with better
moisture near the Rio Grande into the CRP CWA. Activity should wane
quickly towards and after sunset. Majority of the region will not
receive any rainfall today. Otherwise, enjoy the temperatures today
through tonight as they will trend the coolest of the week. While
not widespread, some very patchy shallow fog may be possible early
Friday morning.

A much warmer day will be expected on Saturday as mid-level ridging
centered to our west and southwest starts to nose more into Texas.
Under sunny afternoon skies, highs should reach the 90s area wide
with some 100s out west along the Rio Grande. Saturday night into
early Sunday should see dew points climb into the low 70s in areas
located along and east of I-35. This will result in warmer overnight
lows and the a better opportunity for some patchy fog into Sunday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Upper level ridging will be in play for the beginning of the long-
term forecast period into the middle of next week. Southerly flow at
the surface will prevail as well. With these prevailing conditions,
high temperatures will be on the increase for the beginning of the
period. On Sunday expect highs to be near 90 in the northeast to 104
near the Rio Grande. By Wednesday, we will see middle 90s in the
northeast with temperatures near 104-105 near the Rio Grande.
Dewpoints will likely remain elevated and heat index values will
have to be monitored for any possible need for heat products
especially on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak disturbance may bring a
chance of showers and storms late Thursday afternoon and evening and
this could knock high temperatures down a degree or two on Thursday
with warmer weather likely back for Friday. Will show some 20 and 30
PoPs during this time frame for the eastern Hill Country and
northern portions of the I35 corridor. Lows during the long-term
forecast period will be in the lower to upper 70s for most
locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Aviation concerns tonight are fog and low stratus development mostly
east of the I-35 and I-37 corridors. IFR and pockets of LIFR
conditions are forecast to develop in this region overnight and then
mix out and become VFR after 14Z. The fog and low stratus could
encroach west to near a SSF-BAZ-HYI-AUS line around sunrise before
mixing out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  71  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  70  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  70  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            91  70  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  76 105  77 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  70  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  70  97  70 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  70  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           94  72  95  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...29
Aviation...76