721
FXUS65 KFGZ 031001
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
301 AM MST Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy
afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday,
and remaining gusty through the start of the wee. Temperatures
will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the
middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on
Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before
we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the
Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with
southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon.

A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and
digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this
low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday
around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near-
seasonable temperatures.

As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great BAsin and
should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has
limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area,
there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across
the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations
of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves
through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10
degrees below normal.

The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient
tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust
around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far
as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on
Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory
level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning
criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let
let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds
may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds!

With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the
potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely
areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop
below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the
fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on.

As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better
conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on
Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region.
Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the
week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon
cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds
overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing
through around 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z...VFR conditions expected.
Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance
(10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon.
SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday
with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions
north of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff