Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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291 FXUS65 KFGZ 021048 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 348 AM MST Thu May 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue through the end of the week. More unsettled weather and strong winds will impact the area this weekend into the start of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Tranquil weather conditions are taking place across northern Arizona early this morning with clear skies, little to no wind, and near average temperatures. Zonal flow will develop this afternoon and continue through Friday resulting in mild, daytime temperatures, dry conditions, and westerly winds of 10-20 mph. A weak trough looks to pass by from the southwest Friday evening into early Saturday, however, little to no impacts besides for some increasing cloud cover, should take place. For this weekend, the synoptic weather pattern becomes unsettled as a strong, Pacific low pressure system looks to make its way through much of the West. The majority of the moisture associated with this system will likely be confined to north-central California, Nevada and into Utah for Saturday into Sunday. Much of the Southwest will have to deal with the strong southwest winds on Sunday as a result of a passing cold front with strong upper-level jet support. By Saturday afternoon, southwest winds begin to increase in strength with widespread gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds are forecast to remain elevated Saturday night and into early Sunday morning across much of the High Country leading to relatively mild overnight low temperatures without full decoupling taking place. Then, the southwest winds become strong and widespread by Sunday afternoon with gusts of 35-55 mph and localized gusts as high as 65 mph in wind prone locations. Global models indicate 700 mb winds of 50-65 kts on Sunday along with excellent agreement in regards to the ECMWF Ens with peak wind gusts of 45-55 mph for the Flagstaff region, White Mountains region, and much of the Little Colorado River Valley and into the Navajo/Hopi Nation. Went ahead and added in areas of blowing dust mainly across northeast Arizona for Sunday afternoon with impacts likely along I-40, from Twin Arrows to the New Mexico border. Afternoon humidity will be greater (25-35%) along and west of the Mogollon Rim during this time, however, is expected to remain quite low (10-15%) across the Little Colorado River Valley and the Navajo Nation, leading to heightened concerns for critical fire weather conditions. Having said that, from personal experience driving around these portions of the state last week, much of the limited vegetation was still in "green up" with decent flows in the Little Colorado River and Chinle Wash. Even with the strong winds and low humidity, fuels look to be not quite there yet for any fire weather products at this time. The strong winds look to decrease after sunset on Sunday, remaining breezy (15-30 mph) from the west for much of next week. Daytime temperatures will be "cool" on Sunday followed by a warming trend for next week. As for chances of precipitation on Sunday, much of northern Arizona looks to remain dry, however, have decided to add in mentionable POPs (15-20%) along the Kaibab Plateau and the western Mogollon Rim due to the slight increase in moisture along the higher terrain (upslope flow) and presence of strong forcing along the frontal boundary. Other than that, anticipate dry conditions for the rest of next week. && .AVIATION...Thursday 02/12Z through Friday 03/12Z...VFR conditions with W/SW winds around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts before 03Z, then subsiding to around 5 kts or less. OUTLOOK...Friday 03/12Z through Sunday 05/12Z...VFR conditions. Winds SW 10-15 kts on Friday, then increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Mild temperatures and dry conditions. Winds west/southwest winds 10-20 mph with afternoon minimum RH around 10-20%. Saturday through Monday...Cooling temperatures, with mainly dry conditions outside of stray shower on Sunday over the high terrain. Southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph on Saturday, then increasing to 50- 60 mph on Sunday. Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely from the Little Colorado River Valley into the Chinle Valley and Chuska Mountains. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...LaGuardia AVIATION...Humphreys FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff