119
FXUS64 KFWD 041855
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday Afternoon/

Thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon with
impacts expected across North and Central Texas. There will be a
medium risk for flash flooding, especially south of I-20. Severe
storms capable of large hail and damaging winds will also become a
threat this afternoon through tonight.

The weather system responsible for today/tonight`s rain is now
across southern NM, continuing to move eastward. Additionally, a
nearly stationary front stretches from Central Oklahoma
southwestward into the Permian Basin. Several boundaries are also
draped across the region -- one just south of the I-20 corridor
with another across the Red River. As the main shortwave
continues to inch closer to our region, these boundaries are
likely to become the focus for thunderstorm development. MLCAPE
has gradually been on the rise through the day, with just over
2000 J/kg expected by this afternoon. The greatest instability is
likely to be across western Central Texas (west of I-35), where
the atmosphere has remain unperturbed from this morning`s rain.
It`s this area that will have the better chances to experience
severe thunderstorms both this afternoon, then again tonight.

In addition to the severe weather threat, the risk for flash
flooding has increased, especially across western Central Texas.
Models continue to produce widespread heavy rainfall across the
Hill Country, where about half of the area is at risk of picking
up at least 5" of rain. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour cannot be
ruled out, therefore, those across Central Texas should prepare
for potential night-time flooding. The flooding threat will
migrate eastward through the early morning hours as heavy rain
falls over saturated soils. Although rainfall totals are expected
to be slightly lower than western Central Texas, saturated soils
will quickly lead to runoff. Any heavy rain that falls will
quickly lead to flooding across the Brazos Valley.

Another concentrated area of convection appears likely across
North Texas, however, confidence in its exact placement remains
low. Widespread 1-3" of rain are expected with isolated pockets of
4+ inches of rain possible. Wherever those heavier rain bands
develop, the flash flooding threat will rapidly increase.

Precipitation will be shifting eastward through the night,
clearing much of our region by sunrise Sunday. A few lingering
showers cannot be ruled out through the morning as remnant
moisture lingers behind the departing complex. Slightly cooler
temperatures are expected tomorrow with highs in the 70s and 80s.



Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 309 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024/
/Sunday Night Through Next Saturday Afternoon/

Thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, but
convection will be weakening and should completely dissipate late
Sunday evening. By early next week, the upper level low evident in
current mid-level water vapor satellite imagery near the coast of
the Pacific Northwest will eject across the central and northern
Plains as an increasingly negatively tilted upper trough. As
stronger height falls spread east toward the Rockies, surface low
pressure will be generated enhancing southerly low-level flow and
moisture advection across the southern Plains on Monday. While
large-scale ascent attendant to the upper trough will largely be
displaced to the north (OK/KS), favorable low-level
moisture/instability ahead of an eastward mixing dryline may be
sufficient for the development of isolated dryline-induced
convection Monday afternoon. Given that convective coverage is
likely to be low due to the presence of a capping inversion, PoPs
have been capped at 30% Monday afternoon and evening. Instability
in excess of 3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 35-50 kts of deep-layer shear
should sustain any updrafts that develop. Large hail, localized
severe gusts, and a tornado or two will be possible.

Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper-level trough/low will linger
over Montana and the Dakotas while upper-level ridging builds
eastward across the Gulf Coast states. Amid south to southwest
flow at the surface and quasi-zonal flow aloft, abnormal but sub-
record heat is expected each afternoon through Thursday with highs
in the mid 80s to lower 90s. This is near the 99th percentile of
the historical temperature distribution for early May (according
to NAEFS and ECMWF). A shortwave trough will begin working around
the base of the slowly evolving northern Plains upper trough/low
on Wednesday. The enhancement of mid-level flow along with strong
instability ahead of the lingering dryline is expected to bring
thunderstorm chances back into parts of North and Central Texas
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that develop
could become severe with all hazards possible. Storm chances will
likely increase again on Thursday afternoon as the stalled surface
cold front over Kansas finally begins pushing through Oklahoma
and North TX providing a focus for additional convective
development. In the wake of the departing trough/front, Mother`s
Day weekend is shaping up to be seasonably mild with highs in the
mid 70s.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Isolated afternoon storms through around 21Z.
Widespread storms tonight, impacting all TAF sites.

After a morning with light rain and drizzle, much of the
precipitation has now migrated south of the North Texas TAF sites.
Remnant MVFR ceilings continue for now, however, VFR is expected
to evolve closer to 21Z. Southerly winds will persist through
this evening, generally between 10 to 15 knots.

A few storms have already developed west/northwest of Abilene
behind a nearly stationary cold front. This front is positioned
from southwest to northeast, with very little southward progress
expected into our region. Rapid thunderstorm development across
the Permian Basin is expected later this afternoon, with an
eastward movement through the evening hours. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms will be impacting KACT and all North Texas sites
starting around 04Z and continuing through around 08Z. Heavy
rainfall will cause a reduction in visibility with erratic winds
expected. Winds behind the complex of storms is likely to remain
out of the east/northeast

A few lingering showers are possible through the morning hours as
winds return out of the south by the afternoon. There is a low
chance of an isolated storm or two tomorrow afternoon, however,
confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  78  69  83  71 / 100  60  20  30  10
Waco                66  78  68  82  71 / 100  40  20  20   5
Paris               65  74  65  81  69 /  90  90  20  30  30
Denton              64  78  66  82  69 / 100  60  10  30  10
McKinney            66  77  67  82  70 / 100  80  20  30  20
Dallas              67  79  68  83  71 / 100  60  20  30  10
Terrell             66  77  67  82  70 / 100  70  20  20  10
Corsicana           68  79  69  84  72 / 100  50  20  20   5
Temple              67  79  69  82  71 / 100  40  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       64  78  66  84  69 /  90  20  20  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$