825
FXUS64 KFWD 031028
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
528 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Overnight convection has moved to the east of our area early this
morning but we`ll be watching the ongoing thunderstorms to our
north to see if any boundaries sneak into North Texas prior to
peak heating. At this hour, there is a slow moving cold front to
our north across Oklahoma where thunderstorms have developed. This
activity should remain just out of our area over the next few
hours. Farther south, another boundary separates higher theta-e
air across the Hill Country and southeast TX from the semi-worked
over airmass across North Texas. RAP objective analysis and
surface observations show a fairly large minimum in surface
dewpoints across the region which is likely contributing to the
nearly 400 J/kg of convective inhibition that is indicated by the
RAP guidance. In theory, this should keep convective activity to a
minimum through a good part of the day, despite nearly 2000 J/kg
of MUCAPE above the near surface inversion. For today, we`ll be
watching the moisture boundary across our southern counties as it
should creep northward through late morning and early afternoon.
This will likely result in an increase in scattered showers and
storms south of I-20 through the early afternoon. Thunderstorms
will again fire along a dryline across West Texas, but nearly all
of the guidance suggests that this activity will make it into our
western counties after dark, so we have substantially raised PoPs
across our west for tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes are
needed at this time.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Saturday/

An active pattern is expected to continue across the Southern
Plains into the weekend with periodic storm chances through
Saturday. At this hour, a cluster of thunderstorms extends from
near Hillsboro south toward Lampasas and these should survive for
at least another hour or two given an unstable airmass. The main
threat will be some locally strong wind gusts and hail along with
very heavy rainfall through the rest of the overnight hours. For
the remainder of the night, storm chances will be highest just
downstream of the current convection with low probabilities of
additional storms developing.

A warm and humid airmass will remain in place on Friday
characterized by high theta-e air, weak capping, and generally
weak low level wind fields. The main driver for additional
convection will be a potential lingering outflow boundary from
current thunderstorms ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma.
The high-res guidance suggests that some of this convection will
spread south overnight and into our northeast counties by morning
with an outflow boundary pushing south toward the I-20 corridor
into the afternoon. In the absence of any strong forcing for
ascent, this remnant boundary or boundaries from tonight`s
convection would serve as a focus for additional storms Friday
afternoon. The favored area for this to occur would be east of
I-35. Additionally, the dryline should be displaced farther to the
west Friday afternoon where convection will likely develop across
West Texas. We`ll keep PoPs around 20% for most areas Friday with
the exception of our eastern/southeastern counties. These areas
may see a little better coverage of scattered storms.

Otherwise, we`ll be watching West Texas convection late Friday
evening as it makes a push toward our western counties. We`ll show
some slightly higher PoPs west of I-35 late Friday night for any
remnant activity that may approach. On Saturday, a weak front will
slide south through Oklahoma and into North Texas in conjunction
with an approaching upper disturbance. This increasing forcing for
ascent along with the front will likely lead to an increase in
scattered showers and thunderstorms. We`ll have generally high
PoPs across the region, but will refine the details over the next
24 hours. No widespread severe threat is currently forecast, but
the environment will continue to support a few severe storms with
a hail/wind threat. The flash flooding threat will be locally high
with any slow moving thunderstorms through the weekend.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 316 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024/
Update:

An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend, with
potential for showers and thunderstorms through Monday evening. Of
course, this will largely depend on a variety of factors - most
notably the exact placement of the frontal boundary and any
residual outflow boundaries from previous convective activity.
There will exist a low-end potential for severe weather, which
will need to be closely monitored over the next few days. The main
concerns regarding this include large hail, damaging winds, and
additional rounds of heavy rainfall which may lead to a
reemergence of flooding issues across Central Texas. Thankfully
there appears to be a brief period of relatively low rain chances
as an upper-level ridge strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico, which
will help to limit most severe weather concerns through the week.
Along with this, continual southerly flow will allow our afternoon
highs to steadily creep into the mid 80s and low 90s across the
area. Overnight lows will be quite warm as well, lingering in the
low 70s. For more specific details, please refer to the previous
long term discussion down below and continue to check for updates.

Reeves

Previous Discussion:
/Saturday Night and Beyond/

The Thursday cold front will push back south toward North Texas
Saturday morning with most medium-range guidance suggesting the
frontal boundary will stall somewhere north of I-20 by Saturday
afternoon. This boundary will provide a source of lift for
scattered shower and thunderstorm development in a continually
moisture-rich environment during the day Saturday. With the front
acting as a focal point for thunderstorm development, the greater
rain chances (50-60%) will settle generally along/north of I-20
Saturday.

Confidence is increasing in a more widespread, impactful rainfall
event Saturday night into Sunday as guidance continues to suggest
a potent, compact mid-level shortwave will shift over this
stalled frontal boundary. Deep moisture and more than sufficient
instability will likely allow for thunderstorm development near
the triple point located in West Texas late Saturday
afternoon/evening. An increasing 30-40 kt low-level jet will
provide the needed warm/moist advection to maintain this activity
into our forecast area Saturday night and may lead to additional
development ahead of this complex across North and Central Texas.
The primary threats will be heavy rainfall, large hail, and
damaging winds. However, backed surface winds, low LCLs, and some
low-level curvature in forecast hodographs highlight at least a
low end potential for tornadoes as well, especially west of I-35
as this activity enters our forecast area. Additional thunderstorm
development is possible Sunday afternoon but will be largely
dependent upon the position of frontal boundaries and any
lingering outflow boundaries.

Ensemble guidance continues to highlight another storm system
entering the Plains in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This could
bring chances for storms back to North Texas, however the best
synoptic-scale lift looks to remain north of our forecast area as
of now. By the middle of next week, low-level southwesterly flow
and a building upper-level ridge over the Gulf Coast region will
allow for afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-80s to low
90s by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Keep up with the
forecast over the next several days as we further refine the
details of this messy, mid-spring weather pattern!

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs are spreading north into the D10 airspace and will
likely prevail through the morning before lifting and scattering
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will continue mainly northeast of
the major airports this morning with an increase in coverage
expected this afternoon to the southeast. Overall TS chances
impacting the airports directly appear to be relatively low this
afternoon and evening, but we`ll be watching afternoon development
off to the west as it should make a run at North Texas tonight. TS
coverage will likely be higher on Saturday into Saturday night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  69  79  68  79 /  20  20  50  70  70
Waco                82  68  79  68  79 /  20  30  40  60  60
Paris               80  65  80  65  76 /  30  20  50  60  80
Denton              82  66  79  66  79 /  20  20  50  70  70
McKinney            80  67  79  67  78 /  20  20  50  70  70
Dallas              84  69  81  68  79 /  20  20  50  70  70
Terrell             81  67  80  67  79 /  20  20  50  60  70
Corsicana           82  69  82  69  81 /  30  20  50  50  70
Temple              82  68  81  68  80 /  20  30  30  50  60
Mineral Wells       82  66  79  66  79 /  20  30  50  80  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$