074
FXUS65 KGGW 102100
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
300 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Warmer temperatures that will be above normal are expected
  through Monday.

- There will be frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms
  beginning Saturday night and continuing for the next several
  days.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

An upper level ridge along with surface high pressure will be over
the area with mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. While
the ridge moves south and weakens somewhat on Saturday, surface
high pressure remains over the area with between 75 and 80 in most
areas.

A shortwave trough on NW flow aloft Saturday night and
Sunday will bring a chance of showers and slightly cooler
temperatures on Sunday.

Temperatures rebound on Monday ahead of a stronger shortwave
trough, with a cold front that will move through the forecast area
Monday afternoon and night. Models and ensembles are pointing
towards enough instability for a few thunderstorms with this
system. NBM has a 10-30 percent probability of a thunderstorm
Monday afternoon and night at this point and a 30 to 50 percent
chance of measurable precipitation.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal Tuesday and beyond.
Models and ensembles have upper trough lingering over the area
with frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence exists on above average temperatures through
Monday. However, the current NBM highs for this weekend are at the
lower end of the NBM possibilities (10-25%), so there is a good
chance that the NBM is underforecasting the highs today through
Monday. However, not confident enough to raise highs above NBM for
now.

Low confidence on timing of any showers and thunderstorms Sunday
and beyond. Expect, highly variable precipitation amounts next
week.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. High pressure and upper level ridge will bring mostly clear
skies tonight into Saturday. May see a few mid and high clouds at
times.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow