Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
865 FXUS63 KGID 061920 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 220 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms will exit the area this evening. Despite some scattered rain showers, severe thunderstorms are not expected for the remainder of the work week. - Seasonal Temperatures to slightly below normal for the remainder of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Tonight: The line of Thunderstorms will be exiting the forecast area and moving into eastern Nebraska by around 7pm today. Winds will be westerly behind the line of convection. Lows tonight will be in the 40s. Tuesday - Thursday: The upper trough will be centered across the north central part of the CONUS and it will have multiple lobes of vorticity rotate around it. Some of these disturbances could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms, but moisture will be pushed out with the activity today. This will keep instability low and remove the severe potential. Highs will be in the 60s to low 70s. Westerly winds on Tuesday will keep temps a bit higher due to downslope. The primary upper low will begin to swing southeast across the area Wednesday which will cause winds to become northwesterly behind a cold front. This will drop temperatures a touch for Wednesday and Thursday into the lower 60s which is a touch below seasonal norms for early May. Friday - Monday: A piece of the upper low will get cut off over the four corners region by Friday. As pieces of that energy eject eastward and another area dives southward just west of the great lakes, Nebraska will largely sit mild conditions with small rain shower/thunderstorm potential and near seasonal temperatures. As we move into the next work week, guidance diverges with how the cut-off upper low evolves, however, it does look like Nebraska/Kansas will remain under northwesterly flow aloft which will likely bring some rain/thunderstorm chances into next week, but this doesn`t look to be strong to severe at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 MVFR ceilings will continue in the west until thunderstorms, likely severe, move in around 19z. In the eastern half IFR ceiling prevail until around 20z when the severe thunderstorms move through. Winds outside of storms will gust to 30kts from the south. Expected winds around 50kts in thunderstorms. Clouds will breakup and move west to east this evening, clearing out by sunset. Winds overnight will be around 10kts from the southeast before gusting around 25kts Tuesday afternoon. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Billings Wright AVIATION...