Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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201 FXUS64 KHGX 271740 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Mostly cloudy skies to start this morning, but there will be some breaks in the clouds as we go through the afternoon. Today will be warmest day of the year so far with afternoon high temperatures getting into the mid to even upper 80s in spots with heat indicies climbing to the low 90s. Moderate to strong southerly winds will develop this morning and persist through this evening with sustained winds around 20 to 25mph with gusts to 30 to 35mph possible. Those wind gusts will be more frequent along the coast, so a Wind Advisory has been issued for Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Galveston, coastal Harris, and coastal Liberty counties from 10am through 7pm this evening. The Advisory may get expanded further inland during later updates if winds end up trending stronger. While inland Harris County is not included in this Advisory for now, those living in high rises will likely see higher wind gusts than the rest of the inland areas and may want to secure or bring in any loose items on balconies. Winds gradually subside late this evening. Mostly cloudy skies return tonight with low temperatures only getting down into the low to mid 70s - only a few degrees away from record high minimum temperatures. On Sunday, a low pressure system will be swinging through the Southern and Central Plains bringing with it a line of showers and storms. The Burleson-Brazos county areas may see some isolated showers as early as the mid morning hours on Sunday, but could see some additional popup showers and thunderstorms storms north of Harris County through the early afternoon as the WAA increases ahead of this system. A line of thunderstorms is expected to pass through the BCS area as early as the late afternoon hours and continue to slowly move eastwards through the evening into the overnight hours - even into Monday morning. Conditions are looking fairly favorable for thunderstorm development with CAPE values rising to near 2500+ J/kg, PWATS near 1.6-1.9", decent shear, and EBWD shear near 40kt. The pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon and the thunderstorms that develop along the line in the afternoon/overnight hours will have the possibility to become strong or severe with all severe weather hazards possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with the slow moving, stronger thunderstorms with values up to 2-4" possible. Normally wouldn`t be an issue, but soils are still fairly saturated from the rainfall earlier this week. SPC has placed the a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms for areas north of Harris County and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most of the rest of the region other than the immediate coast. WPC has placed similar areas for Excessive Rainfall with areas north of Harris County in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) and most of the rest of the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5). Temperatures on Sunday will again be warm, but not as warm as today with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s and overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Even though our focus for severe weather peaks out on Sunday, potential for storms - and maybe even a strong to severe one -sticks with us into Monday, and though there`s less confidence in specifics beyond that, will likely be with us on and off through the week to come. Beyond sporadic shots at showers and storms, we can expect fairly seasonable conditions next week, with temperatures sticking right around, or just a little bit on the warm side of seasonal averages. Given that the upper pattern looks, well, downright seasonable, this seems about right. What makes Monday higher confidence than the rest of the days? Well, the easy answer is the shorter lead time, and less opportunity for little chaos butterflies to flap their wings and muck things up. And that`s a lot of it, yes. But it`s probably also worth noting that the vort max that will help support lift looks much more vigorous, digging through the northern stream pattern to the Red River Valley. Of course, that`s still a fair bit north of us, which is going to cap the severe threat for our area somewhat. Still, with that in the rough neighborhood, potentially a bit of diffluence around the upper jet, and a fair amount of instability, Monday looks pretty good for some scattered showers and storms, and perhaps even a strong to severe storm at the very top end. Damaging straight line wind gusts and hail would be the primary concerns here. As we go deeper into the week, we hang onto ample moisture thanks to persistent low level flow off the Gulf. Fronts will try to make it here, and simply none will succeed. If you see anything other than a south/southeast wind for the next several days, it`s either because of storm outflow or because it`s night and we`re getting the typical nocturnal light and variable wind pattern. Along with that, we`ll see southwest flow aloft, connecting us with a stream of weak shortwave troughs out of the Pacific. This should be enough to continue several episodes of showers and storms through the week. Trying to forecast the timing and amplitude of these subtle features so far out is a fool`s errand, and I`m not really going to try that hard. There are a lot of PoPs in the 30s and 40s smeared through much of the week. Broadly speaking, Tuesday and Thursday currently look like slightly favored days, but not worth emphasizing that much. But, should any of these disturbances line up well with peak heating and maximum instability for the day, we could again find ourselves in a situation with a marginal threat for a couple of severe storms. Finally, after pooh-poohing the concept of fronts, it does look like a cold front (with some pretty hefty air quotes around the "cold" part) could make its way into the area. I...would not hold my breath on seeing much impact here, even if it were to actually reach/cross Southeast Texas. Maybe give us one modestly cooler night and give us a bit of a reset on the unsettled weather train. That`d be about it. But something to hope for. It won`t be much longer until even that is wishful thinking. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Cloudy skies and VFR to MVFR CIGS can be expected across SE Texas this afternoon. MVFR CIGS should fill in across the region again this evening, with south/southeast winds of 15-20 knots and gusts of 25-30 knots prevailing overnight. Winds relax slightly Sunday morning as the gradient weakens ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Isolated showers/storms could develop during the afternoon hours ahead of this boundary. Expect more numerous storms during the late afternoon/evening on Sunday, especially north of the I-10 corridor. Some of these storms could become strong to severe at times. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Moderate to strong onshore winds and elevated seas will continue through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Sunday. Minor coastal flooding may be expected in vulnerable locations at times of high tide Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall chances increase on Sunday with scattered showers and storms persisting into Monday. Winds will gradually decrease late Sunday in Monday, with lingering high seas keeping conditions dangerous to small craft through Sunday night. Though more moderate, onshore flow will persist through next week. Additional chances for rain and storms will also continue at times through the new week, though confidence in timing beyond Monday becomes low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 73 82 70 / 10 10 80 80 Houston (IAH) 85 74 84 72 / 0 10 50 60 Galveston (GLS) 80 73 80 73 / 0 0 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-226-227- 235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT Sunday night for GMZ350- 355. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM....Luchs AVIATION...03 MARINE...Luchs