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000
FXUS63 KICT 130550
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1250 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warming trend through the weekend

* Fire danger concerns Saturday and Monday through Thursday across
  central KS

* Confidence is increasing for a severe weather event Monday
  evening/night, possibly significant

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

As of 215pm Friday afternoon, midlevel ridging was building into the
central Plains with a shortwave trough advancing through the OH
valley. At the surface, an area of high pressure was situated across
eastern KS. On the western periphery of the high, southerly low-
level flow has resumed across central and western KS. All in all, a
delightful spring afternoon ongoing with temperatures near 70.

The upward trend in temperature will continue throughout the weekend
as the midlevel ridge overspreads the region. Temperatures Saturday
will surge into the 80s as gusty south wind increase to near 35 mph.
An even warmer afternoon is forecast Sunday with highs nearing the
90 degree mark. A weak shortwave trough is poised to traverse the
state early Sunday, shunting a weak surface trough axis towards the
forecast area. This will shunt the tightest pressure gradient
southeast of the forecast area, giving a brief reprieve from gusty
winds.

Our attention continues to be drawn toward another potent midlevel
trough poised to eject into the Plains early next week. Latest
deterministic and ensemble guidance have further aligned with a more-
ominous scenario Monday evening into Monday night. With the event
remaining 4 days away, it`s too early to dive into the details quite
yet. That being said, the EPS, GEFS, and SREF all depict the highest
probabilities for a severe storms (possibly significant) across
portions of west-central KS and southward into portions of northern
OK. This zone correlates to areas west of Interstate 135, east of
Highway 283, and south of Interstate 70. Again, it`s too early to
dive into specifics but the ingredients appear to be aligning for a
severe weather episode Monday evening/Monday. We encourage you to
continue to check back throughout the weekend for additional detail
and forecast refinements.

Beyond Monday, the Pacific front will sweep across the forecast area
early Tuesday, likely setting the stage for additional storms just
east of the area. Midlevel ridging will build across the southwest
US through midweek with northwesterly flow across the Heartland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Concerns:
1) Low level wind shear early today & in E KS tonight

2) Gusty winds starting mid morning

An increase in the low level jet will lead to low level wind
shear early today and earlier than previously anticipated; this
should subside by around 15Z which is just in time for stronger
sustained winds. Southerly winds are expected to have to speeds
of 20 to 25kts with gusts of 30 to 35 kts through the afternoon
thanks to mixing. These should subside around sunset. Low level
wind shear may move in again especially in southern and eastern
Kansas around 3Z lasting for about six hours. There may be
changes in the coverage and timing of the latter low level wind
shear with the next issuance. VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Saturday: Very high fire danger is expected along and west of I-135
during the afternoon. Southerly winds sustained between 20-30 mph
with gusts near 35 mph will overlap with humidity values in the 15-
25 percent range.

Monday through Thursday: A period of very high to extreme fire
danger is expected as gusty south winds up to 35 mph overlap
afternoon humidity values in the 15-25 percent range each
afternoon. As previously mentioned, the area of most concern
will remain west of I-135.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...BMB