190
FXUS62 KILM 060631
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
155 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain between an inland trough and Atlantic high
pressure with warmer than normal temperatures through mid week.
A cold frontal passage will then bring cooler and drier weather
for late week and this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Early evening convection has dissipated. Latest hi-res
guidance is downplaying chance for showers to advect onshore
late tonight, and latest radar trends reflect a SW trajectory
with the current activity well off the NE SC coast. Therefore
have lowered PoPs for late tonight. but activity should begin to
blossom by mid-morning Monday. Could see patchy fog develop
after midnight, particularly in areas that received rainfall
this afternoon/evening, but with a light southerly wind
stirring, confidence remains somewhat low.

Have cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown, as water
levels topped out just below flooding thresholds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure over the Great Lakes and trailing front will lift off
to the northeast and will help to push trough eastward as shortwave
exits the coast this evening. This will combine with loss of
heating. Therefore expect rain chances to diminish into tonight. A
weak ridge will build up through the Southeast into early Mon and
therefore expect the possibility of a few showers over the coast
toward morning and possibility of fog or low clouds, mainly where
rain fell, but otherwise mainly quiet overnight. Temps will remain
in the mid 60s for lows most places.

Expect thunderstorm activity to pick up into Mon aftn as another
shortwave approaches from the west. Greatest lift and axis of
moisture will be over the I-95 corridor by mid to late aftn on Mon
with pcp water values up to 1.7 inches. This will shift eastward
through the area into early evening. High temps for Mon will be in
the low to mid 80s.

Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor coastal flooding along the
Cape Fear River withing a couple of hours surrounding high tide this
evening which will occur around 830 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Much above normal temps
*Little to no severe storm/flood risk

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details: High pressure offshore and an inland trough will prevail at
the surface along with periodic weak disturbances aloft. This will
keep it warm and muggy with some showers and storms at times,
especially Tuesday afternoon/evening during peak heating. Temps will
be on an upswing, staying well above normal, with mid to upper 60s
generally each night (warmest Tuesday night) and mid to upper 80s
for highs Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Highlights:
*Much above normal temps through at least Thursday; possible record
high at Wilmington Wednesday
*Possible elevated risk of severe storms Thursday

Confidence:
*Low to Moderate through Friday
*Moderate to High Friday night through Sunday

Details: High pressure centered offshore along with a trough inland
should prevail until a cold front moves through later in the work
week, although timing of this frontal passage is uncertain as the
latest guidance suggests it will be earlier than previously thought.
Given the mostly zonal flow aloft, there is some uncertainty
regarding timing of shortwaves, and thus the rain/cloud coverage
which will impact temps to some extent. Cooler and drier weather
will then move in after the cold front passes later in the week and
continue over the weekend.

The warmest temperatures this period should be Wednesday and
Thursday when they`ll be near 90 for highs. No records are expected
to be reached, although could come the closest at Wilmington on
Wednesday (92 degrees). Heat indices should stay mostly in the mid
90s or less so no Heat Advisories are anticipated. Temps should fall
Friday as a cold front approaches, possibly even more so than
currently forecast depending on the timing of the frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Bermuda high pressure will keep a moist southerly-southwesterly,
around 5 kt increasing to around 10 kt during daylight Mon) flow
through Monday. May see convection drift onshore overnight or fire-
up and affect the immediate coast daytime Mon morning. Sea breeze
should push inland-some by the afternoon ending the threat at the
coastal terminals but will see convective debris clouds. Inland,
diurnal heating and yest another upper s/w trof to fire convection
thru the aftn and into the evening. Will identify shra time line but
keep VCTS to highlight the ltg threat at the terminals.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic
visibility and ceiling restrictions Tue. Otherwise, looking at VFR
dominating late Tue into Thu with limited convection. Flight
restrictions possible later Thu into Fri from convection ahead of a
strong cold front. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday... Southerly winds will continue over the waters with
S-SE winds shifting to a more S-SW direction into Mon. Sea breeze
will back winds and produce increasing gusts each aftn. Seas will
remain around 3 to 4 ft, dominated mainly by short period wind
waves.

Monday night through Friday...The local waters will remain between
Atlantic high pressure and an inland trough maintaining southerly
winds until a cold front moves through, possibly on Friday. Should
see elevated winds/seas through the period with winds gusting to
near Small Craft Advisory levels (25+ kt) at times, especially each
afternoon/evening due to the sea breeze. Seas should mostly stay
below 6 ft but could reach SCA levels briefly on Thursday ahead of
the approaching cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...CRM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...RGZ/CRM
MARINE...RJB/RGZ