National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KILN 212356
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
756 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the southeast through the day
on Monday, leading to dry conditions and some moderation in
temperatures. A chance of showers will return Tuesday into
Tuesday night as an upper level disturbance moves through the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Stratocumulus and cu field across our area this afternoon will
gradually dissipate through late afternoon and early evening as we
lose the diurnal heating and a mid level short wave continues to
shift off to our southeast. This will lead to mostly clear skies
tonight and with fairly light winds, good radiational cooling is
expected. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 30s, with even
some cooler readings possible in outlying areas. Will continue with
the Frost Advisory for tonight across the entire area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high pressure will shift slowly off to our southeast
Monday. Weak low level CAA Monday morning will transition to more
neutral through the afternoon. Still though, with some lingering low
level moisture, some isolated to scattered cu development will be
possible form late morning into early afternoon. Temperatures
will moderate a bit with highs on Monday mostly in the lower
60s.

Any cu should dissipate by evening. In northwest flow aloft,
some weak mid level energy will lead to an increase in mid and
high level clouds through the Monday night. Lows Monday night
will will be in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active pattern expected to start the extended forecast period as an
H5 shortwave trough is forecast to swing through the Upper Midwest
region. Coverage in showers expected to increase late Tuesday
afternoon and evening, particularly NW of I-71. Showers will
continue to translate southeastward as the cold front moves through.
Models are pretty meager with instability production, but still
could observe a few rumbles of thunder with this system.

Precip will have shifted east of our CWA Wednesday morning. Surface
high pressure builds in through the day from the Great Lakes region.
Seasonably cool temperatures settle in during the middle of the work
week behind the frontal passage. Favorable radiational cooling
conditions will likely lead to some frost development Wednesday
night. H5 ridging will begin to nudge in from the Central Plains,
with height rises leading to a warming trend through the end of the
work week and into the weekend.

As we head into Friday, a shortwave trough begins to travel through
the central CONUS and takes a northeasterly track through portions
of the Midwest region. The Ohio Valley remains on the warm side of
this particular system, so many locations will observe highs in the
70s both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, several rounds of
showers and storms are to be expected these days as an active period
sets up through the weekend. As of now, this negatively tilted
trough remains far enough west that the worst of the severe weather
will remain out of our CWA, but will have to monitor trends in the
location of this trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface ridge axis to build into the area overnight. Diurnally
driven/enhanced cumulus and stratocu field across the area
today was thinning out and will continue this trend with skies
clearing out this evening.

Skies will be clear overnight into Monday morning. Some
lingering low level moisture may lead to some isolated to
scattered cu development again Monday afternoon.

Northwest winds at 10 kts or less will back more westerly and
become light overnight. West to southwest winds at less than 10
kts will be observed on Monday.


OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible Tuesday.
Gusty winds to 30 knots possible Tuesday. MVFR ceilings may linger
into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for INZ050-058-059-
     066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...AR