717
FXUS64 KJAN 291206
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
706 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through tonight: A large mesoscale convective system will
continue to track east across the area early this morning, and it
should gradually weaken as it moves into a less favorable
thermodynamic environment. One concern with this decaying MCS
scenario is for a wake low wind event to take place, and current
upstream obs suggest this could be unfolding (e.g., El Dorado gusted
to 36 mph from the southeast). Will continue to monitor for
increased mesoscale wind potential, but overall, any remaining
severe threat looks marginal, and the progressive nature of the
diminishing MCS should help to limit the heavy rain potential. Going
through tonight, convective rainfall potential should continue ahead
of a shortwave trough passage this evening. There may be increased
fog potential for early Tuesday morning. /EC/

Tuesday through mid next week: Our area continues to be under a
late spring/early summer regime with a warm humid airmass in
place. Showers and thunderstorms will be a daily possibility,
driven by this humid airmass, as well as intermittent
disturbances. Through much of the week, ridging aloft will prevent
any airmass change. Moisture is ample to support diurnal
convection, though weak shear will limit any updraft organization.
Later in the week, a weak cold front attempts to push southward
and may bring briefly cooler temperatures, but significant airmass
change is unlikely. Rain and storm chances slowly decrease early
next week as we begin to warm even more with temperatures in the
upper 80s and perhaps some spots reach 90 degrees by mid next
week. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A decaying mesoscale convective system will move across the area
accompanied by mostly MVFR category stratus and TS potential as
we go through the morning, but expect a slight improvement later
this afternoon with a greater chance for reaching VFR category. By
late tonight, ceilings are expected to lower significantly, and
we may see a greater threat for IFR category ceilings, and perhaps
even some vsby reductions due to fog prior to daybreak. Overall,
southerly surface wind and stronger mixing should limit widespread
fog potential. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  62  82  62 /  90  60  10   0
Meridian      83  61  84  61 /  70  60  20   0
Vicksburg     76  63  84  63 / 100  30  10  10
Hattiesburg   82  64  86  64 /  70  60  30  10
Natchez       76  63  84  64 /  90  30  20  10
Greenville    75  64  82  63 / 100  30   0   0
Greenwood     75  63  82  62 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SW/SW/EC