646
FXUS62 KJAX 041712
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
112 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Early to mid morning convection and cloud cover that pushed across
the region has disrupted the usual diurnal convective cycle and
has delayed the onset of sea breeze circulations this afternoon,
but as enough partial sunshine pushes the temps into the 80s
through the remainder of the afternoon hours, expect a resurgence
of scattered to numerous showers and storms along old outflow
boundaries and inland moving sea breeze through the early evening
hours, with a few isolated strong storms possible over inland
areas with gusty winds, but the overall main impact will be some
locally heavy rainfall due to the slow storm movement and frequent
lightning in some of the activity. With the late start to
convection, expect activity to linger until around midnight as
weakening storms become lingering shower activity and drift back
towards the Atlantic Coast. Partly cloudy skies develop overnight
with patchy fog development over inland areas, with locally dense
fog possible where more significant rainfall fell today, most
likely across inland SE GA towards sunrise Sunday morning. Low
temps generally in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along
the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Upper level high pressure ridge will build over the forecast area
Sunday. Latest guidance indicates potential for scattered to
numerous showers and t-storms along sea breezes during the
afternoon. A weak shortwave trough passes N of forecast area
Monday, leading to greater coverage of showers N of forecast area
extending S across our s-ctrl GA counties, with lesser coverage
further S. Temperatures during this period are expected to be
slightly above normal, with highs in the mid-upper 80s inland,
lower 80s immediate coast, with morning lows in the mid-upper 60s
inland, near 70 coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

A more substantial upper ridge builds over the forecast area
during this period in response to an intense storm system over
the central U.S. The latest guidance suggests this will be a drier
and warmer period for forecast area, with well-above normal
temperatures. By Wed-Fri, high temperatures will be in the lower-
mid 90s, with morning lows in the upper 60s to around 70. Late
Friday a cold front will move over s-ctrl GA introducing a chance
of showers with slightly cooler temperatures there.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Early morning convection over SE GA and abundant clouds has
delayed onset of diurnal sea breeze convection which should kick
off just a few hours later than usual and expect just VCSH at
coastal TAF sites, while still expect TEMPO TSRA possible at GNV
from 21-24Z and possible VCTS at VQQ, but otherwise less coverage
than expected earlier. Convection fades after 01-02Z and mainly
VFR conds through 07-09Z, then low level stratus/fog expected with
MVFR conds at GNV/VQQ/JAX through sunrise, then MVFR BKN025 at all
TAF sites in the morning from 12-16Z, before heating lift CIGS to
VFR levels with VCSH slowly kicking off at the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

High pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters
through the weekend. Afternoon sea breeze development will
continue each afternoon for the next several days as high pressure
re-positions further south, shifting winds toward a southerly
direction early next week. Winds should trend offshore toward the
end of next week as a cold front approaches from the northwest. No
headlines are expected through the period.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through
early next week as local sea breezes dominate the surf zone with
breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th...JAX 94/1977...CRG 94/1977...GNV 96/1955...AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th...JAX 96/1959...CRG 93/1977...GNV 97/1955...AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th...JAX 96/1962...CRG 93/2008...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th...JAX 94/2017...CRG 95/2003...GNV 95/2011...AMG 95/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  88  67  88 /  50  40  20  60
SSI  70  83  70  83 /  20  30  10  40
JAX  67  87  68  87 /  20  40  10  40
SGJ  68  85  68  86 /  20  40  10  30
GNV  66  88  65  88 /  40  60  10  50
OCF  66  88  67  89 /  40  60  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$