Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
208 FXUS62 KKEY 071843 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 GOES visible satellite is depicting mostly clear skies across a majority of the forecast area. A few cloud streamers have developed north of the island chain, and few very weak showers have attempted to develop, but have struggled to maintain themselves. So far today, there has been no measurable rainfall to speak of on land. This is despite the decent moisture being detected by CIMSS MIMIC TPW (50-75th percentile PW values). Dew points across the Keys have unfortunately made it into the mid-70s, and with temperatures in the upper 80s, it has made for a toasty afternoon. An expansive area of high pressure extending across the western North Atlantic has maintained moderate breezes today, which has attempted to keep some of the humidity at bay. Slightly above normal atmospheric moisture will remain in place across the area tonight, however, the chance for any measurable rainfall along the island chain is very low. This is due to the weak, shallow nature of any shower activity, as well as the very minimal coverage expected. Have decided to drop rain chances altogether for tonight. A drier airmass will filter in across the region through the end of the work week, which will keep rain chances near nil through Friday. Winds will peak and lull through that timeframe, with the highest winds expected tomorrow night. Above normal temperatures and soggy dew points will continue to plague the Keys for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows will struggle to drop below 80 degrees, likely coming in just under 80 degrees most nights. Friday through Friday night, winds will become southerly as deep troughing shoves the high in the western North Atlantic southward and drags a frontal boundary into the Gulf. Winds will shift to the southwest to west on Saturday, which could initiate a reverse cloud line. Have kept 20% rain chances on Saturday, which is above MOS guidance to account for this possibility. The front will slowly seep down the Florida Peninsula, but unfortunately is progged to stall to our north. Despite the expected stall, winds across our area will shift to the west to northwest, which could bring in dew points in the lower 70s. It may not seem like much, but we will take anything we can get before summer fully sets in. Moisture will make a more noticeable return by the start of next week, so have maintained a chance of rainfall and a slight chance of thunder. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through Thursday night. Breezes will slacken and veer to the south and southwest Friday into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western Atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period with FEW to SCT skies AOA 2k ft. Near surface winds will be east to southeasterly at 10 to 15 knots through the evening, and will taper off to near 10 kts overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2022, the record high (92F) and the record warm low (80F) were both recorded in Marathon. Temperature records date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 86 79 87 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 79 86 80 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest