Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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054 FXUS63 KLBF 122026 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 326 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Three storm systems will cross the cntl/nrn Plains during the next 7 days- One tonight and Monday, then Tuesday night and Wednesday followed a third Thursday night and Friday. - The risk of anything more than an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm during the next 7 days is low at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The area of deformation and rain operating across scntl and swrn Nebraska this afternoon should shift south and east as the upper low across Colo moves east into KS tonight. The rain forecast uses the short term model blend plus the NAM and HREF. Rain processes have been top-down and this suggests lapse rates have moistened up. Nonetheless, isolated thunderstorms are underway across the Sandhills and south of Interstate 80. The forecast continues isolated thunderstorm chances overnight. The thunderstorms are mainly for the early evening hours as suggested by the HRRR echo tops product. A warm sector has opened up across the Sandhills, ncntl and swrn Nebraska this afternoon supporting instability. Sfc obs show this underway and an approaching cold front from the north supports thunderstorms this evening. All of this rain should be south and east of the area by mid morning Monday. Drier air will move in aloft for partly cloudy skies. The temperature forecast Monday uses the short term model blend plus the NBM 50th. Wrn/ncntl Nebraska will be under a WAA zone Monday afternoon and this will support highs in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 318 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 The next item of interest is the prospect of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. The models show an upper level disturbance off the coast of British Columbia moving east through the nrn Plains during this time. Only the NAM and GEMreg models show storms developing across ncntl Nebraska Tuesday afternoon. The concern is winds aloft at h500mb will be strong, 30-45kt, K-indices well in the 30s to near 40 and perhaps 1500 J/KG of MLCAPE will be in place. The models are in good agreement showing this disturbance off of BC moving through the Dakotas during the afternoon for upper level support. All of this could support an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm chance across ncntl Nebraska. Additional shower and thunderstorm chance is in place for a cold front moving through Tuesday night with rain chances lasting into Wednesday. A storm system south of the Aleutians will track south and east, perhaps crossing the nrn Plains Thursday or Friday, according to the ECM. The GFS tracks the system through the central provinces of Canada. The forecast is for isolated thunderstorms with this system but it`s worth noting the ECM with it`s srn storm track suggests significant post-frontal convection Friday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A low pressure system tracking through the region brings widespread showers and potential for thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight across southwest Nebraska. Additionally, a cold front pushing south from the Dakotas is causing a line of thunderstorms to form across the northern Sandhills. However, VFR conditions are still expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. For now, have omitted thunder from the TAFs for KLBF, as current model guidance has the thunderstorms weakening before reaching the terminal, however, this may need amendment if storms overperform. Winds will mostly remain northerly to northeasterly, but may become a bit erratic around thunderstorms and the frontal boundary. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CDC LONG TERM...CDC AVIATION...Richie