Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221751
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1251 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Refreshed short term (1st 12 hours) grids to reflect observations
and radar/satellite trends. Convection is now well east of the
area, with just some trailing showers over our SE coastal waters
zone. Midlevel low very notable on satellite imagery, spinning
over NE LA, with dry air advecting east under the base of the low.
Some low clouds and wrap around moisture streaming across E TX
into central LA will create a mix of sky conditions across the
area today, and enough lift/moisture associated with the exiting
system could produce a few showers or isolated storms through the
afternoon hours. These changes resulted in some slight
adjustments to forecast wording for the remainder of the day, and
updated text products have been sent.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Currently there are storms moving into the south CenLA / Acadiana
region with another round of storms moving across our SETX
Counties. Models are struggling to resolve the timing on the
latter squall line of storms moving out of the area, however the
general consensus is that it will weaken as it moves across us and
exit the CWA by mid to late morning. We could see some isolated
showers behind this, however that will be quick to taper.

As the base of the upper level low moves into the ArkLaMiss area,
we could also see some isolated wrap around showers across parts
of the CWA, mainly north of the I- 10 corridor, this evening.
Regardless the moisture will still be in the area so we will not
see much in the way of drier conditions right off the bat.

Better and more pleasant conditions can be expected for part of
the weekend. While the front will deliver nothing in the way of
cooler temperatures, it will be drier on Saturday. Over the entire
long term, MaxTs will be in the 70s with MinTs in the 40s and 50.

Southerly flow will be back and elevated on Sunday, bringing in more
moisture ahead of a system expected to bring another round of
active weather in the long term.

Stigger/87

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Active, unsettled weather looks likely for the start of the long
term however, the later half of the week will bring quiet and
seasonal conditions. On Monday, a significant upper level trough will
be deepening over the western CONUS, with strong SWrly flow overhead
providing a steady stream of moisture aloft. At the surface, a
couple of cold fronts will be over the southern and central Plains
early Monday, with brisk onshore flow expected in their advance. As
moisture increases at both the surface and aloft throughout Monday
forecast soundings show PWATs climbing into the 1.5-1.6" range by
the later half of the day, which is above the 90th percentile
according to SPC climo. As moisture increases so will
instability/lift as the aforementioned pair of cold fronts dive
towards the CWA late Monday and the western CONUS trough shifts
towards TX. SPC has outlined part of the CWA, mainly our LA parishes
north of I-10, in a Day 5 Slight Risk for severe weather, while WPC
has included all of our LA parishes as well as a small part of SE TX
in a Day 5 Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Both the severe and
excessive rainfall risk look to be mainly for Monday afternoon into
early Tuesday morning at this time, with all risks looking to come
to an end early Tuesday as the cold fronts sweep through the region.

Conditions should improve quickly through Tuesday, as winds shift NW
behind the front and usher in a cooler and drier airmass. Skies will
clear out by Tuesday afternoon, with temps expected to top out in
the low to mid 70s. Surface high pressure will settle overhead early
Wed, traversing the region through the later half of the week
allowing winds to gradually turn more easterly and southeasterly
from Thurs into Fri. As a result, a slow warming trend looks to
commence from Wed-Fri, with highs in the lower 70s on Wed rebounding
into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Friday. Otherwise, the second
half of the week looks quiet, with no convection expected.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Satellite imagery shows sparse cloud cover across the southern
terminals while further north, low clouds wrapping around a low
pressure system over NE LA were producing MVFR (and possibly
occasional IFR) cigs at AEX. Low clouds are expected to prevail at
AEX through this evening with a mix of MVFR and IFR cigs
(although brief breaks this afternoon could yield short term VFR).
As the low moves east, MVFR cigs could impact the Acadiana
terminals for a few hours this evening. Otherwise a gradual
improvement to VFR/SKC is expected areawide overnight. Wly winds
will shift more NWly through the afternoon and evening, with
sustained speeds 10-15 KT and occasional gusts to 20-25 KT.
Gustiness will settle this evening but sustained speeds are
expected to remain ~10 KT overnight.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

A secondary strong line of showers and thunderstorms are moving
through the coastal waters this morning. West to northwest winds
will develop in the wake of the front and strengthen Friday night
into Saturday. Beginning early Sunday, winds will turn back
onshore increase in onshore flow ahead of another incoming system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  50  71  45 /  60  10   0   0
LCH  75  53  74  51 /  20  10   0   0
LFT  75  55  72  49 /  40  10   0   0
BPT  77  54  76  54 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...87
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...24


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