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000
FXUS64 KLIX 151130
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
630 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Early morning upper air pattern showed upper ridging from south
Texas to the Dakotas, with an upper low centered near Las Vegas.
At the surface, high pressure extended from near Bermuda westward
across much of the northern Gulf of Mexico. A stationary frontal
boundary was well to the north of the area near Interstate 70.
Other than a little bit of cirrus, skies were mostly clear across
the local area at 2 AM CDT with temperatures ranging from the mid
50s to mid 60s. A few minor reductions in visibilities were noted
near the Mississippi River, but no indications of dense fog at
this time.

The axis of the upper ridge will shift to the east of the area on
Tuesday, as the upper low near Las Vegas lifts northeastward to
near Omaha by Tuesday evening. Southerly flow will strengthen a
bit, especially on Tuesday, but precipitable water values don`t
really look to increase significantly. Other than somewhat of an
increase in cloud cover, especially for a few hours around sunrise
Tuesday, any sensible weather impacts should be limited. NBM
deterministic numbers for highs are generally near or above global
deterministic numbers, but yesterday`s highs indicate NBM values
are reasonable. Forecast dew points overnight should be a
reasonable solution.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

With the upper low lifting into the Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday, the upper ridge rebuilds along the Gulf Coast, with the
surface boundary remaining well north of the area. Can`t rule out
a stray shower or storm over southwest Mississippi by Thursday
afternoon entirely, but GFS PoPs look to be a bit too high and
like the NBM PoPs better. For the weekend, ridging gets suppressed
a bit southward. Both the GFS and ECMWF operational runs move
several shortwaves through zonal flow across the southern states
Friday through the weekend. The strongest of the shortwaves looks
to be on Sunday, with the ECMWF about 6 hours quicker than the
GFS. For now, will ride with the NBM solution, with chance PoPs,
mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday. NBM high temperatures
running above both the global operational numbers Thursday/Friday,
and likely to be a degree or two too warm, as 90 degree
temperatures in April are a rare event, even in southeast
Louisiana. Baton Rouge has only exceeded 90 degrees in April 3
times in the last 25 years, and two of those were back to back in
2006.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Most terminals VFR this morning. The main exception has been KMCB,
which has been primarily at IFR or lower for the past 3 hours,
occasionally at or below field minima. KHDC was briefly
experiencing low conditions but improved shortly before issuance
time. Expect KMCB to improve by about 14z. Little in the way of
clouds expected for the daytime hours today, but likely to see
cirrus level clouds increase toward sunset. With low level
moisture expected to continue to increase overnight tonight, most
terminals expected to see MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop beyond
06z Tuesday, probably closer to 10z. Those ceilings would be
expected to improve by mid-morning Tuesday. Southeasterly winds
will start to become more prevalent this afternoon with most
terminals near or above 10 knots, with somewhat stronger winds
anticipated during the daytime hours Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Overall, marine conditions should be comparatively quiet, with the
only area of concern at this time being the potential for Small
Craft Exercise Caution headlines on Tuesday and Tuesday evening
when the pressure gradient will be a bit tighter than surrounding
periods. The next period of stronger winds beyond that appears to
be late in the weekend or early next week as a frontal boundary
works into the area. But that is beyond the scope of the current
marine forecast package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  62  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  86  67  86  70 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  83  65  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  83  68  83  71 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  78  65  78  67 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  81  62  80  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW