652
FXUS64 KMEG 101722
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1222 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

A beautiful mid spring morning across the Mid-South. Temperatures
are in the upper 60s to lower 70s with comfortable humidity. The
latest surface analysis places a 1001mb low off the New England
Coast with a cold front extending southeast through the Carolinas,
back into Alabama, and along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. A 1024mb
high was analyzed over Colorado.

Moderate northwest winds will keep temperatures from warming too
much more this afternoon, despite plentiful sunshine and dry air
in place. Expect highs in the mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.

Made minor edits to winds and temperatures through late afternoon.
The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

AC3

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

High pressure will result in pleasant weather through the weekend.
Unsettled weather is on tap for next week. The first system will
result in numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday
and Tuesday. A relatively dry day is on tap for Wednesday before
another system brings back shower and thunderstorm chances by
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Cirrus from convection well to the south covers much of the Mid-
South along and south I-40 with clear skies to the north. Temps
this morning range from the upper 50s in NW TN to 70 at Tupelo
with light north winds.

High pressure will continue to build into the region today and
continue through the weekend with pleasant temperatures and
comfortable humidity levels. Highs will be cooler than normal
today, in the 70s climbing to the lower 80s by Sunday. Temps
will drop into the 50s tonight with lows a little warmer each
night through the weekend.

Next week looks unsettled. A mid level upper low will move from
the Four Corners region into the Mid South early next week with an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. An increasingly
moist boundary layer, with dewpoints climbing back into the lower
to mid 60s, combined with cold air aloft associated with the upper
low could result in some strong storms. Expect these would occur
mainly during peak heating in the afternoon/early evening Monday
(western sections) and Tuesday (areawide).

The area should get a brief reprieve on Wednesday as the upper low
pulls east and shortwave ridging builds over the region. Expect a
mostly dry day with highs in the lower 80s.

The next upper trough will push into the area by Thursday with
more chances for showers and thunderstorms for the end of week. A
cold front should push through late in the week with a perhaps
another nice weekend in the cards.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

VFR conditions through the period as high pressure builds in.
Primarily a wind forecast this TAF issuance. North/northwest winds
will remain gusty up to 20 kts behind a cold front through sunset.
Winds will then become light and begin to shift west/northwest.
West/southwest winds will pick back up at around 8 kts tomorrow
afternoon.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AEH