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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230522
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
122 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Conditions are improving this evening as few showers linger over
land and the rest of remaining activity is over the local waters.
Much calmer weather will settle in tonight and through tomorrow,
however there will be chances for a few lingering showers along
the east coastal areas as a result of lingering moisture as the
drier air slowly moves in. Otherwise, mostly dry weather takes
over on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A cold front will cross South FL today and push away from the area
tonight. Along and ahead of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected, especially across the east coast metro.
A shortwave moving across the area this afternoon will coincide with
peak heating, so there will be enough support for a few stronger
storms. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few storms may
contain locally damaging wind gusts. High temps this afternoon will
range from the middle 80s north of Alligator Alley to upper 80s
across the far southern peninsula.

Despite the cold front moving away from the area tonight, some
scattered coastal showers will remain possible overnight into early
Tuesday morning as drier air is slow to filter in. There will be a
wide range in temps overnight, with upper 50s over inland SW FL, to
around 70 close to the Atlantic coast.

High pressure over the SE US builds into the area for Tuesday
bringing a return of drier air to the region. NE flow is expected
which will bring cooler temps to the east coast metro, while SW FL
will remain above normal. High temps will range from the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the east coast metro to middle 80s across SW
FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A mid level zonal flow will give way to a weak mid level trough
pushing into the region from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday into
Thursday morning. At the surface, high pressure will shift into
the western Atlantic as a very weak frontal boundary pushes into
Northern Florida. This frontal boundary will not make it much
farther south as it will wash out well off to the north which
will allow for dry conditions to prevail across South Florida
during this time frame. High temperatures will generally range
from around 80 across the east coast to the mid to upper 80s
across Southwestern Florida as easterly wind flow remains in
place.

Towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, A
building mid level ridge will push eastward from the Gulf of
Mexico and extend into the region during this time frame. At the
surface, high pressure centered well off to the northeast will
remain the dominate synoptic feature for the weather pattern
across South Florida through the end of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. While mainly dry conditions will remain in
place, easterly wind flow will strengthen heading into the
upcoming weekend. As a result, increased lower level moisture
advection could produce a brief shower or two from time to time
mainly over the Atlantic waters and east coast this weekend. High
temperatures during the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend will remain in the lower 80s across the east coast metro
areas and into the mid to upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Generally
N-NE winds this morning, will shift NErly by late morning
sustained at around 10-15kts with gusts up to around 20 kts. An
afternoon wind shift to the NW will be possible at KAPF.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Hazardous marine conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front
crossing the area, especially in the Atlantic and Biscayne Bay where
SCA winds are expected. SCEC conditions are expected in the Gulf and
Lake Okeechobee. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and
ahead of the front today. Conditions improve on Tuesday, however SCA
will continue for the Atlantic waters through Tuesday evening due to
lingering high seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

There is an elevated risk of rip currents today at all South FL
beaches as a cold front crosses the area. A high risk of rip
currents is expected for the Atlantic beaches beginning on Tuesday
and lasting through much of the week as onshore flow returns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  68  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     81  64  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        81  66  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        80  67  81  68 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  78  68  79  69 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  78  67  79  68 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   81  66  82  68 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  78  64  79  65 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       79  66  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           85  64  84  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Carr