Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
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718 FXUS62 KMHX 070701 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 301 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 3 AM Tue...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored offshore, troughing inland and mid level shortwave moving through the Carolinas. Sct showers and iso tstms ongoing early this morning over central NC, moving towards the coastal plain, with additional activity beginning to blossom over the Gulf Stream. Today still looks to be a conditional severe weather day across Eastern NC, with likely less coverage than yesterday, but a more favorable environment. Convection may be ongoing right along, or just off, the coast this morning associated with a weak mid-level wave moving through. Expect there to be a brief period of subsidence in its wake. Additionally, mid/upper level ridging will be approaching from the west, adding to the potential for subsidence. Strong heating of a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE climbing as high as 1000-1500 j/kg this afternoon, while mid/upper level northwesterly flow aloft atop a southerly low- level flow will lead to an increase in deep layer shear, the 25-35kt. Overall, the environment will be more supportive of severe weather than yesterday, however, modest subsidence plus questionable low-level forcing may limit svr potential and coverage. The seabreeze will likely be the primary focus for convective initiation. If/where thunderstorms develop, there will be an increased risk of severe weather. The environment will support the potential for damaging winds and large hail with any sustained updraft. Mid-level lapse rates aren`t forecast to be particularly steep, but NW flow aloft will increase the risk of rotating updrafts, subsequently increasing the potential for hail development. With the low-level flow taking on more of a westerly component, low-level thicknesses will increase a bit and expect high temps to climb into the upper 70s/low 80s for the beaches and mid to upper 80s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 AM Tue...Any convection that develops should weaken by late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and as low-level forcing weakens. Convection likely pushing off the coast by midnight. Another muggy and mild night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected. However this lack of precipitation will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. An approaching strong frontal system will then impact the area Thursday into Friday once again bringing unsettled weather back to the area. More benign weather possible over the weekend. Wednesday...A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges across the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal flow. At the surface SW`rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. There is a chance for some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to occur especially along any sea/sound breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability will once again be in place though with weaker shear and forcing compared to Tuesday current thinking is that storms won`t be very organized in nature. This could change and bears monitoring in the coming days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to be the driest day out of the week so far. Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped up an incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast to occur Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest thunderstorm and severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon and evening with a diminishing threat on Friday. With this change in mind, did increase PoP`s to likely on Thurs afternoon and lowered PoP`s on Friday to SChc to Chc. Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values >1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon and evening. Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted well offshore. The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 AM Tue...Mix of VFR and IFR across the terminals early this morning, with patchy stratus moving into the coastal plain. Guidance indicating the chance for status is a bit lower than last night but still around a 30-50% chance for MVFR cigs late tonight, ~08-12Z, across western terminals, including PGV and ISO. Probs for IFR is much lower but do jump up to 20-40% briefly around daybreak ~10-12z. All terminals will have potential for sub-VFR through 12z this morning. Expect conditions to return to VFR near or shortly after 12z this morning. VFR expected outside of sct showers or tstms, which may impact terminals later this morning and this afternoon. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most part through mid- week outside of any shower or thunderstorm each aftn/evening that impacts the area. Another round of sub VFR conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning at some point on Fri. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 3 AM Tue...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. SW/WSW winds 10-20 kt expected for most of today with seas 3-5 ft. Expect another surge 15-25 kt late this afternoon and into tonight with strengthening thermal gradient. Given how winds overachieved a bit Monday evening, went ahead with a SCA for the central and southern waters late this afternoon into tonight, with potential for a period of frequent gusts to 25 kt along with seas building to 4-6 ft. May need to be extended into the Pamlico Sound as well. Sct showers and tstms expected across the waters today. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. Otherwise 15-20 kt SW`rly winds will continue across all our waters with ocnl gusts to 25 kts along the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a cold front approaches on Thursday SW`rly winds increase further closer to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times promoting SCA conditions across our waters on Thurs with winds potentially easing and becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...RCF AVIATION...CQD/RCF MARINE...CQD/RCF