Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 211045
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Spot Forecast for C 57/58 Lake Rd...USFS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
645 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build in behind a backdoor cold front
currently progressing across the forecast area this morning. An
initial period of gusty conditions immediately behind the front
will diminish late morning into the early afternoon. Sea breeze
becomes dominant this afternoon ushering in more easterly flow.
RH values will drop to around 40% near the burn site today, rising
to 50-60% behind the sea breeze.

A complex low pressure system will approach the area Friday and
push through the area Saturday bringing periods of strong winds
and heavy rainfall. High pressure will build into the area early
next week bringing drying conditions.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing Height.......Max 3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 35765 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 1.
ADI.................Max 44.
Stability class.....2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.18 to 30.21 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   2   2   2   3   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............51  54  57  59  61  61  61  59
RH..............56  50  43  40  38  38  38  40
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   9   8   8   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  18  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.9 3.7 3.4
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.15  13  10  10  8   8   8   8
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............39  38  37  44  38  38  36  34
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.33  34  30  36  31  32  30  27
Sfc pres (in)...018 020 021 020 020 019 018 018

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing Height.......Min 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 10 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 4024 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 4.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.19 to 30.27 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........3   5   5   9   17  21  25  31  34  37  42  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............57  54  51  49  48  47  47  47  47  47  48  49
RH..............45  50  61  66  74  79  83  86  89  93  89  89
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   6   5   4   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.                    5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.8   9   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   3   4   5   5   6   6   5   5
ADI.............27  4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   7   7
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.22  18  5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Sfc pres (in)...019 020 022 024 026 027 027 026 025 024 024 024

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Slight chance of rain showers early in the
                    morning. Chance of rain showers late in the
                    afternoon, then rain showers likely late in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing Height.......Max 3700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 21 mph
                    late in the morning.
Vent Rate...........Max 72795 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 5.
ADI.................Max 52.
Stability class.....4.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.15 to 30.27 inHg.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........48     59     68     79     87     87
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     50     58     62     64     64
RH..............89     89     72     65     63     67
20 ft wind......E 5    E 6    E 9    E 12   E 12   SE 11
20 ft wind gust.              14     18     23     18
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    2900   3700   3200   2700
Transport wind..E 10   E 12   E 17   E 20   E 21   SE 21
LVORI...........5      5      3      1      1      1
ADI.............7      13     41     52     51     46
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate mph-ft/1K.4      5      50     73     65     55
Sfc pres (in)...30.25  30.26  30.27  30.25  30.21  30.17

$$
Forecaster...Simms
Requested by...David Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408017.0/MHX
.DELDT 03/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.l.nelson@usda.gov


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