Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 250413
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1113 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- THROUGH TONIGHT, Heavy snow and major travel impacts arrive
  this afternoon and last into Monday morning. Snowfall rates
  of 1 to 2"/hr at times.

- TONIGHT/MONDAY, Temperatures warm tonight and Monday, with
  most locations changing over to rain. Western MN looks to
  remain cold enough for snow.

- MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, cold air and gusty northwest winds with
  light/moderate snow. Could have some ice briefly mix in
  Monday night as surface temperatures fall back below freezing.

- Looking ahead, gradual melt expected next week as highs slowly
  warm back toward 50 by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Regional radar from late this morning showed that snow has
filled in across much of MN and is spreading into WI. This
precip is developing in response to broad, strong WAA ahead of
the approaching cyclone (mentioned in previous discussions).
Snowfall should grow more intense this afternoon and evening as
the low pressure system nears and synoptic lift increases. This
will be especially true late this afternoon into this evening,
immediately ahead of the northward lifting warm nose/warm front.
Snowfall rates in this region should be between 1-2" per hour
and last at least an hour or two, leading to a quickly
accumulating wet, heavy snow for nearly the entire MPX CWA as
the heavier rates overcome the initially warmer ground
temperatures. A large majority of the forecast snow with this
system will fall by Monday morning. 4-8" will be possible across
south- central MN and our southern WI counties while amounts in
western and central MN and our northern WI counties will
receive closer to a foot. Additionally, winds will also become
strong (gusts to around 25 mph) this evening. Thus, travel
conditions this evening through tonight will be very difficult
with the heavy and likely blowing snow.

The surface low passing through southeast MN during Monday will
mean near constant definite PoPs for the entirety of the CWA.
Snow will continue from western to central MN where the colder
air will reside. However during early Monday morning, snow will
transition to rain across southern MN as the warm nose advances
north. CAMs show a continual northeastward advancement of the
rain throughout Monday (eastern MN/western WI by mid-morning;
northeastern MN by the afternoon). The combination of rain and
highs in the low to mid-40s should melt at least a large portion
of the fallen snow. Guidance rainfall amounts favor at least an
inch across our southern to eastern CWA through Monday night,
with CAMs showing isolated higher corridors where convective
precip may be obtained. Meanwhile, an additional 3-6" is
possible across western and central MN during the same
timeframe.

By Tuesday, the cyclone will start making more eastward progress
and begin to weaken. This will drag precipitation with it
allowing wrap-around snow on the backside of the low to pass
over most of MN. While significant snowfall is not expected
Tuesday, another 1-2" accumulation is possible before the
precipitation finally exits east. Additionally, forecast
soundings are showing a chance for some icy precipitation Monday
morning across MN, so this will be something that needs to be
monitored as it may affect the morning commute. It also won`t
feel too pleasant Tuesday with highs ranging in the mid 20s to
lower 30s across MN while northwesterly winds gust to near 35
mph.

The coldest day of the period looks to be Wednesday as a cold
air mass following the system briefly settles over the
Northern Plains. Highs are only expected to reach the low 20s to
low 30s across the entire region. Some snow showers may also be
possible, particularly in north-central MN underneath the
cyclonic flow aloft. It appears the cold snap will be short-
lived as long-range guidance suggests the continuing of a more
amplified, active upper-level flow pattern into next weekend.
This pattern would allow for pushes of warm air prior to any
approaching systems with cold air following afterwards. Whether
we have another good chance at precipitation is in question, but
we do at least seem to be getting into a pattern more typical
of spring.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Several waves of light/mod -SN have passed across and will
continue to pass across all TAF sites through this evening while
southern MN has now started the changeover to -RA, and this
includes KMKT. Visibilities will commonly run 1-2sm, with
occasional 1/2sm from time to time. Snowfall rates this evening
may reach the 1-2 in/hr range, particularly with the strong
band of precipitation over southern MN making its way north-
northeast. Warm ground and compaction with the liquid-heavy snow
has prevented optimal accumulation. IFR/LIFR conditions will
prevail through most of, if not all of, this TAF duration. After
06z, precip type will mix with and change over to -RA for
southern MN, helping increase visibilities a little but also
contributing to a drop in ceilings with warmer air over the
fresh snow. Western MN will remain as all snow, while central MN
into eastern MN will have the most mix of rain/snow. Breezy NE-E
winds will persist throughout, with sustained speeds 10-15kts
with gusts 20-25kts.

KMSP...Bands of heavier snow just south of MSP Airport at
initialization will slowly shift north across the Twin Cities
metro, likely producing 1-2 in/hr rates through 07z or so, with
visibilities around 1sm. Precip will transition to rain through
the early morning hours and continue as rain through the day
tomorrow. However, while visibilities may slightly increase, low
stratus ceilings will likely drop due to the warmer air.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR likely, Chc RA/SN. Winds NW 15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR, w/ MVFR possible. Chance -SHSN. Winds W 15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Winds W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Benton-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Mille
     Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Yellow
     Medicine.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for Chisago-Isanti-
     Sherburne.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for Anoka-Carver-
     Dakota-Hennepin-Meeker-Ramsey-Scott-Washington-Wright.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for Brown-Goodhue-
     Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Sibley.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for Blue Earth-
     Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for Barron-
     Chippewa-Dunn-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for Eau Claire-
     Pepin-Pierce.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC


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