Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 281238
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Orrock Piles RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
738 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on March 28.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Light westerly winds at ignition, with relative humidity values
above 80%. Westerly winds are forecast to remain light through
late morning and into the afternoon, with occasional gusts up to
10 mph. Lots of sunshine today, with highs in the low 30s. Minimum
relative humidities drop into the 60-65% range this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Temperature.........11 at ignition...Max 32.
RH..................89 percent at ignition...Min 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 5 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 5 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /2500 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...fair
                    /18000 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............11  10  15  21  24  28  29  31  31  31  30  28
RH..............89  91  92  77  77  68  66  63  66  66  69  71
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   7   6   7   7   7   6   5   3
20 FT wind gust.12  10  10  10  10  10  12  12  10  10  9   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.8 0.4
Transp wind dir.W   NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   9   8   9   9   9   9   9   8   5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Temperature.........Min 12.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming east around 5 mph
                    after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1000 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 8 mph shifting to the south
                    around 5 mph overnight, then shifting to the
                    east 5 to 9 mph overnight.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    snow late in the morning. Chance of snow early
                    in the afternoon, then chance of rain late in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 39.
RH..................Min 75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (23700 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 12 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Bob Bengson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408725.0/MPX
.DELDT 03/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert_bengson@fws.gov


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